Lightweight

3 Rounds

Ross Pearson won · S-DEC R3

Elo1372

Elo1392

Ross PearsonvsPaul FelderUFC Prediction Result

UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 · Saturday, September 5, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ross Pearson won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRoss Pearson: Well-roundedvsPaul Felder: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Paul Felder wins(72.6%)

Actual result: Ross Pearson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paul Felder at -440 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ross Pearson has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Ross Pearson

Red Corner

Paul Felder

Blue Corner

+350

(22%)

Vegas Odds

-440

(81%)

1372

Elo

1392

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'11"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ross PearsonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Stevie Ray · Nov 16

KOvs Dan Hooker · Jun 17

vs Mizuto Hirota · Feb 18

vs John Makdessi · Jul 18

KOvs Desmond Green · Mar 19

latest

Paul FelderL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Perry · Jul 18

vs James Vick · Feb 19

vs Edson Barboza · Sep 19

vs Dan Hooker · Feb 20

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Nov 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ross PearsonMetricPaul Felder

3.68

Strikes / min

3.70

4.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

62%

Strike defense

48%

0.74

TDs / 15 min

0.29

75%

Takedown defense

64%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.41evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ross PearsonPaul Felder

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ross Pearson(10 fights)Paul Felder(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -19.9|Blue +19.9

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ross PearsonTargetPaul Felder

By target zone

38% acc · 45%

Head

29% acc · 58%

76% acc · 35%

Body

88% acc · 25%

86% acc · 19%

Leg

83% acc · 17%

By position

56% acc · 90%

Distance

31% acc · 63%

55% acc · 10%

Clinch

71% acc · 28%

0% acc

Ground

83% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ross Pearson rounds

even

Paul Felder rounds

Round 1Paul Felder edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control2:24

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:50Control

Round 2Ross Pearson edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Ross Pearson edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:41

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 116

Sig Strikes

60 / 151

51%

Sig Str %

45%

86 / 140

Total Strikes

72 / 163

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:05

Ctrl Time

1:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Paul Felder	19 / 27	28 / 36	0 / 0
1	Ross Pearson	6 / 13	26 / 33	1 / 1
2	Paul Felder	22 / 60	22 / 60	0 / 0
2	Ross Pearson	27 / 51	27 / 51	0 / 0
3	Paul Felder	19 / 64	22 / 67	0 / 0
3	Ross Pearson	29 / 52	33 / 56	0 / 0

Ross Pearson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights23

Paul Felder

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15