Lightweight

3 Rounds

Ross Pearson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1372

Elo1369

Ross PearsonvsMizuto HirotaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · Saturday, February 10, 2018Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Ross Pearson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRoss Pearson: Well-roundedvsMizuto Hirota: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Mizuto Hirota wins(68.2%)

Actual result: Ross Pearson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mizuto Hirota at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ross Pearson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Ross Pearson has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ross Pearson

Red Corner

Mizuto Hirota

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1372

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ross PearsonL5 streak

oldest →

vs Jorge Masvidal · Jul 16

vs Stevie Ray · Nov 16

KOvs Dan Hooker · Jun 17

vs John Makdessi · Jul 18

KOvs Desmond Green · Mar 19

latest

Mizuto HirotaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rani Yahya · Mar 13

vs Rodrigo Damm · Jun 13

vs Cole Miller · Dec 16

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Jun 17

vs Christos Giagos · Dec 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ross PearsonMetricMizuto Hirota

3.68

Strikes / min

3.36

4.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.50

62%

Strike defense

54%

0.74

TDs / 15 min

1.36

75%

Takedown defense

58%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.41evenly matched on net striking-0.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ross PearsonMizuto Hirota

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ross Pearson(10 fights)Mizuto Hirota(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.7|Blue -2.7

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ross PearsonTargetMizuto Hirota

By target zone

23% acc · 53%

Head

28% acc · 64%

53% acc · 28%

Body

30% acc · 4%

92% acc · 19%

Leg

93% acc · 32%

By position

33% acc · 98%

Distance

35% acc · 95%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

80% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ross Pearson rounds

even

Mizuto Hirota rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Mizuto Hirota edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Mizuto Hirota edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 176

Sig Strikes

77 / 213

32.3%

Sig Str %

35.7%

59 / 177

Total Strikes

77 / 213

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mizuto Hirota	17 / 47	17 / 47	0 / 1
1	Ross Pearson	16 / 52	17 / 53	0 / 0
2	Mizuto Hirota	34 / 91	34 / 91	0 / 0
2	Ross Pearson	19 / 54	19 / 54	0 / 0
3	Mizuto Hirota	26 / 75	26 / 75	0 / 0
3	Ross Pearson	23 / 70	23 / 70	0 / 0

Ross Pearson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights23

Mizuto Hirota

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6