← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Ross Pearson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1372

Elo1490

Ross PearsonvsJunior AssuncaoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem · Friday, December 30, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ross Pearson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRoss Pearson: Well-roundedvsJunior Assuncao: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Junior Assuncao wins(54.6%)

Actual result: Ross Pearson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Junior Assuncao at +295 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ross Pearson has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Ross Pearson

Red Corner

Junior Assuncao

Blue Corner

-325

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+295

(25%)

1372

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

175.26 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ross PearsonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Stevie Ray · Nov 16

KOvs Dan Hooker · Jun 17

vs Mizuto Hirota · Feb 18

vs John Makdessi · Jul 18

KOvs Desmond Green · Mar 19

latest

Junior Assuncao

oldest →

vs Eddie Yagin · Sep 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ross PearsonMetricJunior Assuncao

3.68

Strikes / min

3.31

4.09

Strikes absorbed / min

2.06

62%

Strike defense

44%

0.74

TDs / 15 min

2.43

75%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.41Δ 1.66 — meaningful gap+1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ross PearsonJunior Assuncao

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ross Pearson(10 fights)Junior Assuncao(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -118.4|Blue +118.4

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red +2.8|Blue -2.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ross PearsonTargetJunior Assuncao

By target zone

51% acc · 54%

Head

62% acc · 74%

70% acc · 31%

Body

67% acc · 19%

73% acc · 15%

Leg

60% acc · 7%

By position

55% acc · 75%

Distance

60% acc · 74%

72% acc · 25%

Clinch

77% acc · 23%

Ground

33% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ross Pearson rounds

even

Junior Assuncao rounds

Round 1Junior Assuncao edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:06Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control1:11

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:45Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:45

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:49Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

52 / 89

Sig Strikes

43 / 69

59.3%

Sig Str %

61.7%

87 / 127

Total Strikes

50 / 77

1 / 1

TDs

3 / 18

100%

TD %

17.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:56

Ctrl Time

5:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Junior Assuncao	13 / 24	17 / 28	1 / 4
1	Ross Pearson	13 / 30	15 / 32	0 / 0
2	Junior Assuncao	19 / 28	21 / 31	1 / 7
2	Ross Pearson	19 / 34	35 / 51	1 / 1
3	Junior Assuncao	11 / 17	12 / 18	1 / 7
3	Ross Pearson	20 / 25	37 / 44	0 / 0

Ross Pearson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights23

Junior Assuncao

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights2