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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jorge Masvidal won · U-DEC R3

Elo1372

Elo1456

Ross PearsonvsJorge MasvidalUFC Prediction Result

UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · Saturday, July 30, 2016Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Jorge Masvidal won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRoss Pearson: Well-roundedvsJorge Masvidal: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Jorge Masvidal wins(69.1%)

Actual result: Jorge Masvidal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jorge Masvidal at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jorge Masvidal has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ross Pearson

Red Corner

Jorge Masvidal

Blue Corner

+225

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-265

(73%)

1372

Elo

1456

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'11"

175.26 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ross PearsonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Stevie Ray · Nov 16

KOvs Dan Hooker · Jun 17

vs Mizuto Hirota · Feb 18

vs John Makdessi · Jul 18

KOvs Desmond Green · Mar 19

latest

Jorge MasvidalL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nate Diaz · Nov 19

vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21

vs Colby Covington · Mar 22

vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ross PearsonMetricJorge Masvidal

3.68

Strikes / min

4.05

4.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

62%

Strike defense

64%

0.74

TDs / 15 min

1.38

75%

Takedown defense

72%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.41Δ 1.41 — meaningful gap+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ross PearsonJorge Masvidal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ross Pearson(10 fights)Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -84.5|Blue +84.5

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -40.0|Blue +40.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ross PearsonTargetJorge Masvidal

By target zone

18% acc · 27%

Head

38% acc · 74%

54% acc · 37%

Body

78% acc · 16%

79% acc · 37%

Leg

79% acc · 10%

By position

38% acc · 98%

Distance

42% acc · 81%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

80% acc · 7%

Ground

52% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ross Pearson rounds

even

Jorge Masvidal rounds

Round 1Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:23

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 2Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control0:06

Knockdowns0

45Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:29Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

52 / 138

Sig Strikes

113 / 256

37.3%

Sig Str %

44%

53 / 139

Total Strikes

130 / 277

2 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:29

Ctrl Time

0:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jorge Masvidal	32 / 77	33 / 78	0 / 0
1	Ross Pearson	12 / 43	13 / 44	1 / 1
2	Jorge Masvidal	45 / 82	61 / 102	1 / 1
2	Ross Pearson	18 / 39	18 / 39	1 / 1
3	Jorge Masvidal	36 / 97	36 / 97	0 / 0
3	Ross Pearson	22 / 56	22 / 56	0 / 0

Ross Pearson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights23

Jorge Masvidal

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights22