Lightweight

3 Rounds

Francisco Trinaldo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1372

Elo1496

Ross PearsonvsFrancisco TrinaldoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz · Sunday, January 17, 2016Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Francisco Trinaldo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRoss Pearson: Well-roundedvsFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Francisco Trinaldo wins(65.3%)

Actual result: Francisco Trinaldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francisco Trinaldo at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ross Pearson has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Francisco Trinaldo (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ross Pearson

Red Corner

Francisco Trinaldo

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1372

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'9"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ross PearsonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Stevie Ray · Nov 16

KOvs Dan Hooker · Jun 17

vs Mizuto Hirota · Feb 18

vs John Makdessi · Jul 18

KOvs Desmond Green · Mar 19

latest

Francisco Trinaldo

oldest →

KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21

vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21

vs Danny Roberts · May 22

vs Randy Brown · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ross PearsonMetricFrancisco Trinaldo

3.68

Strikes / min

3.13

4.09

Strikes absorbed / min

2.67

62%

Strike defense

60%

0.74

TDs / 15 min

0.98

75%

Takedown defense

60%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.41evenly matched on net striking+0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ross PearsonFrancisco Trinaldo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ross Pearson(10 fights)Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -124.7|Blue +124.7

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -13.0|Blue +13.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ross PearsonTargetFrancisco Trinaldo

By target zone

16% acc · 32%

Head

38% acc · 67%

62% acc · 46%

Body

76% acc · 25%

86% acc · 21%

Leg

80% acc · 8%

By position

30% acc · 82%

Distance

40% acc · 69%

40% acc · 7%

Clinch

67% acc · 31%

75% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ross Pearson rounds

even

Francisco Trinaldo rounds

Round 1Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control0:22

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:39

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 85

Sig Strikes

51 / 112

32%

Sig Str %

43.7%

32 / 89

Total Strikes

53 / 114

2 / 2

TDs

1 / 3

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:01

Ctrl Time

1:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Francisco Trinaldo	9 / 29	9 / 29	1 / 1
1	Ross Pearson	8 / 29	8 / 29	0 / 0
2	Francisco Trinaldo	24 / 42	26 / 44	0 / 0
2	Ross Pearson	7 / 26	9 / 28	1 / 1
3	Francisco Trinaldo	18 / 41	18 / 41	0 / 2
3	Ross Pearson	13 / 30	15 / 32	1 / 1

Ross Pearson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights23

Francisco Trinaldo

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26