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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Evan Dunham won · U-DEC R3

Elo1372

Elo1385

Ross PearsonvsEvan DunhamUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Leites · Saturday, July 18, 2015Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Evan Dunham won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRoss Pearson: Well-roundedvsEvan Dunham: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Evan Dunham wins(56.0%)

Actual result: Evan Dunham wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Evan Dunham at +205 American odds

+$205 profit

$305 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Evan Dunham (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ross Pearson

Red Corner

Evan Dunham

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1372

Elo

1385

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'10"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ross PearsonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Stevie Ray · Nov 16

KOvs Dan Hooker · Jun 17

vs Mizuto Hirota · Feb 18

vs John Makdessi · Jul 18

KOvs Desmond Green · Mar 19

latest

Evan DunhamL3 streak

oldest →

vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 15

vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16

KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18

KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18

SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ross PearsonMetricEvan Dunham

3.68

Strikes / min

5.33

4.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.54

62%

Strike defense

61%

0.74

TDs / 15 min

1.82

75%

Takedown defense

79%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.41Δ 2.20 — meaningful gap+1.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ross PearsonEvan Dunham

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ross Pearson(10 fights)Evan Dunham(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -13.1|Blue +13.1

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ross PearsonTargetEvan Dunham

By target zone

50% acc · 63%

Head

49% acc · 73%

71% acc · 31%

Body

50% acc · 4%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

86% acc · 23%

By position

38% acc · 38%

Distance

30% acc · 27%

80% acc · 50%

Clinch

69% acc · 35%

100% acc · 13%

Ground

83% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ross Pearson rounds

even

Evan Dunham rounds

Round 1Evan Dunham edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:09

5Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:09Control

Round 2Evan Dunham edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:38Control

Round 3Evan Dunham edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:14Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 28

Sig Strikes

26 / 48

58.3%

Sig Str %

51.3%

47 / 67

Total Strikes

88 / 119

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 13

—

TD %

54.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

11:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Evan Dunham	5 / 13	28 / 39	2 / 2	1
1	Ross Pearson	3 / 7	13 / 19	0 / 0	0
2	Evan Dunham	14 / 20	44 / 54	2 / 4	0
2	Ross Pearson	3 / 4	19 / 26	0 / 0	0
3	Evan Dunham	7 / 15	16 / 26	1 / 7	0
3	Ross Pearson	10 / 17	15 / 22	0 / 0	0

Ross Pearson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights23

Evan Dunham

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17