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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Desmond Green won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1372
Elo1492

Ross PearsonvsDesmond GreenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje · Saturday, March 30, 2019Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Desmond Green won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:52

Style matchupRoss Pearson: Well-roundedvsDesmond Green: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Desmond Green wins(77.7%)

Actual result: Desmond Green wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Desmond Green at -600 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Desmond Green (53.5%).
  • Desmond Green has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ross Pearson
Red Corner
VS
Desmond Green
Blue Corner
+450
(18%)
Vegas Odds
-600
(86%)
1372
Elo
1492
41
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
5'10"
175.26 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ross Pearson
oldest →
L
vs Jorge Masvidal · Jul 16
L
vs Stevie Ray · Nov 16
L
KOvs Dan Hooker · Jun 17
W
vs Mizuto Hirota · Feb 18
L
vs John Makdessi · Jul 18
latest
Desmond Green
oldest →
L
vs Rustam Khabilov · Sep 17
L
vs Michel Prazeres · Feb 18
W
vs Gleison Tibau · Jun 18
L
vs Mairbek Taisumov · Sep 18
W
vs Charles Jourdain · May 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ross PearsonMetricDesmond Green
3.68
Strikes / min
3.70
4.09
Strikes absorbed / min
2.51
62%
Strike defense
69%
0.74
TDs / 15 min
1.62
75%
Takedown defense
75%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.41Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap+1.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1465 vs 1497Strikes44.1 vs 48.2Takedowns0.6 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-0.4 vs -0.3
Ross PearsonDesmond Green

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Ross Pearson(10 fights)Desmond Green(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -119.9|Blue +119.9
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +49.0|Blue -49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ross PearsonTargetDesmond Green

By target zone

1
17% acc · 8%
Head
17
74% acc · 68%
4
36% acc · 33%
Body
6
100% acc · 24%
7
100% acc · 58%
Leg
2
67% acc · 8%

By position

12
50% acc · 100%
Distance
10
63% acc · 40%
0
Clinch
1
100% acc · 4%
0
Ground
14
93% acc · 56%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Ross Pearson rounds
0
even
1
Desmond Green rounds
Round 1Desmond Green edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
25Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:08Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
12 / 24
Sig Strikes
25 / 32
50%
Sig Str %
78%
12 / 24
Total Strikes
25 / 32
0 / 1
TDs
1 / 2
0%
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:08

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Desmond Green25 / 3225 / 321 / 20
1Ross Pearson12 / 2412 / 240 / 10

Ross Pearson

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights23

Desmond Green

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights7