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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Cub Swanson won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1372

Elo1516

Ross PearsonvsCub SwansonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · Friday, June 22, 2012Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Cub Swanson won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:14

Style matchupRoss Pearson: Well-roundedvsCub Swanson: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Ross Pearson wins(55.7%)

Actual result: Cub Swanson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ross Pearson at -215 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Ross Pearson

Red Corner

Cub Swanson

Blue Corner

-215

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1372

Elo

1516

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ross PearsonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Stevie Ray · Nov 16

KOvs Dan Hooker · Jun 17

vs Mizuto Hirota · Feb 18

vs John Makdessi · Jul 18

KOvs Desmond Green · Mar 19

latest

Cub SwansonW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 22

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Aug 23

vs Andre Fili · Jun 24

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 24

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ross PearsonMetricCub Swanson

3.68

Strikes / min

4.84

4.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.99

62%

Strike defense

59%

0.74

TDs / 15 min

1.00

75%

Takedown defense

63%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.41Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap+0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ross PearsonCub Swanson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ross Pearson(10 fights)Cub Swanson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -144.1|Blue +144.1

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +3.0|Blue -3.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +29.0|Blue -29.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ross PearsonTargetCub Swanson

By target zone

27% acc · 63%

Head

41% acc · 87%

73% acc · 29%

Body

50% acc · 4%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

80% acc · 9%

By position

32% acc · 79%

Distance

42% acc · 89%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

58% acc · 18%

Ground

57% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ross Pearson rounds

even

Cub Swanson rounds

Round 1Ross Pearson edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:44

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Cub Swanson edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns2

Control1:51

Knockdowns0

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 107

Sig Strikes

45 / 104

35%

Sig Str %

43.5%

49 / 124

Total Strikes

51 / 115

3 / 6

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:35

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Cub Swanson	21 / 56	23 / 61	0 / 0
1	Ross Pearson	20 / 52	22 / 54	1 / 2
2	Cub Swanson	24 / 48	28 / 54	0 / 1
2	Ross Pearson	18 / 55	27 / 70	2 / 4

Ross Pearson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights23

Cub Swanson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights25