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Women's Strawweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Rose Namajunas won · S-DEC R5
Elo1499
Elo1509
Zhang Weili

Rose NamajunasvsZhang WeiliUFC Prediction Result

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Saturday, November 6, 2021New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Rose Namajunas won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupRose Namajunas: Well-roundedvsZhang Weili: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Zhang Weili wins(52.8%)

Actual result: Rose Namajunas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Zhang Weili at -120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rose Namajunas has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Zhang Weili (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Rose Namajunas
Red Corner
VS
Zhang Weili
Blue Corner
+100
(50%)
Vegas Odds
-120
(55%)
1499
Elo
1509
34
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'5"
Height
5'4"
165.1 cm
Reach
160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rose Namajunas
oldest →
W
vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 24
W
vs Tracy Cortez · Jul 24
L
vs Erin Blanchfield · Nov 24
W
vs Miranda Maverick · Jun 25
L
vs Natalia Silva · Jan 26
latest
Zhang Weili
oldest →
W
SUBvs Carla Esparza · Nov 22
W
vs Amanda Lemos · Aug 23
W
vs Yan Xiaonan · Apr 24
W
vs Tatiana Suarez · Feb 25
L
vs Valentina Shevchenko · Nov 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rose NamajunasMetricZhang Weili
3.50
Strikes / min
4.66
3.38
Strikes absorbed / min
2.63
63%
Strike defense
53%
1.47
TDs / 15 min
1.96
62%
Takedown defense
63%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.12Δ 1.91 — meaningful gap+2.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1590 vs 1507Strikes3.7 vs 5.7Takedowns1.6 vs 2.5Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.50Form0.9 vs -0.6
Rose NamajunasZhang Weili

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Rose Namajunas(10 fights)Zhang Weili(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -9.7|Blue +9.7
Recent Form
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Striker Score
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rose NamajunasTargetZhang Weili

By target zone

57
44% acc · 66%
Head
36
32% acc · 43%
12
71% acc · 14%
Body
14
88% acc · 17%
17
85% acc · 20%
Leg
33
73% acc · 40%

By position

60
44% acc · 70%
Distance
64
46% acc · 77%
6
100% acc · 7%
Clinch
5
63% acc · 6%
20
77% acc · 23%
Ground
14
52% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Rose Namajunas rounds
1
even
2
Zhang Weili rounds
Round 1Zhang Weili edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
22Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:08Control
Round 2Rose Namajunas edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns1
Control0:31
16Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:38Control
Round 3Zhang Weili edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:02
25Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:57Control
Round 4Even round
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control2:32
12Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
0:54Control
Round 5Rose Namajunas edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns1
Control3:55
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
86 / 168
Sig Strikes
83 / 173
52.8%
Sig Str %
47%
130 / 219
Total Strikes
162 / 272
2 / 2
TDs
5 / 11
100%
TD %
46.4%
0
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
0
7:00
Ctrl Time
3:37

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Zhang Weili22 / 3836 / 561 / 30
1Rose Namajunas20 / 3622 / 380 / 00
2Zhang Weili16 / 3921 / 441 / 30
2Rose Namajunas20 / 4522 / 481 / 10
3Zhang Weili25 / 5129 / 551 / 10
3Rose Namajunas14 / 3816 / 400 / 00
4Rose Namajunas14 / 2339 / 490 / 00
4Zhang Weili12 / 2732 / 502 / 30
5Zhang Weili8 / 1844 / 670 / 10
5Rose Namajunas18 / 2631 / 441 / 10

Rose Namajunas

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights19

Zhang Weili

StanceSwitch
Height64.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights9