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Women's Flyweight
5 Rounds
Rose Namajunas won · U-DEC R5
Elo1499
Elo1484
Tracy Cortez

Rose NamajunasvsTracy CortezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Saturday, July 13, 2024Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Rose Namajunas won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupRose Namajunas: Well-roundedvsTracy Cortez: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Tracy Cortez wins(64.4%)

Actual result: Rose Namajunas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tracy Cortez at +200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Rose Namajunas
Red Corner
VS
Tracy Cortez
Blue Corner
-270
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+200
(33%)
1499
Elo
1484
34
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'5"
165.1 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rose Namajunas
oldest →
L
vs Manon Fiorot · Sep 23
W
vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 24
L
vs Erin Blanchfield · Nov 24
W
vs Miranda Maverick · Jun 25
L
vs Natalia Silva · Jan 26
latest
Tracy CortezL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Melissa Gatto · May 22
W
vs Jasmine Jasudavicius · Sep 23
W
vs Viviane Araujo · Jun 25
L
SUBvs Erin Blanchfield · Nov 25
L
DECvs Wang Cong · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rose NamajunasMetricTracy Cortez
3.50
Strikes / min
3.86
3.38
Strikes absorbed / min
3.01
63%
Strike defense
57%
1.47
TDs / 15 min
2.15
62%
Takedown defense
59%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.12evenly matched on net striking+0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1584 vs 1575Strikes3.7 vs 3.7Takedowns1.6 vs 2.1Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.30Form0.3 vs 1.0
Rose NamajunasTracy Cortez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Rose Namajunas(10 fights)Tracy Cortez(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +15.4|Blue -15.4
Recent Form
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -189.0|Blue +189.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rose NamajunasTargetTracy Cortez

By target zone

66
45% acc · 69%
Head
31
19% acc · 53%
17
85% acc · 18%
Body
14
82% acc · 24%
13
93% acc · 14%
Leg
13
68% acc · 22%

By position

93
53% acc · 97%
Distance
52
28% acc · 90%
3
60% acc · 3%
Clinch
6
67% acc · 10%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

4
Rose Namajunas rounds
1
even
0
Tracy Cortez rounds
Round 1Rose Namajunas edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:28
Knockdowns1
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Rose Namajunas edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns1
Control0:23
11Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:16Control
Round 3Rose Namajunas edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns2
Control3:47
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 4Even round
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control1:06
12Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:24Control
Round 5Rose Namajunas edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns1
Control0:52
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:15Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
96 / 180
Sig Strikes
58 / 198
50.2%
Sig Str %
27.2%
119 / 215
Total Strikes
85 / 233
5 / 5
TDs
2 / 5
100%
TD %
37.5%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
6:36
Ctrl Time
0:58

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tracy Cortez12 / 4314 / 450 / 00
1Rose Namajunas26 / 5030 / 550 / 00
2Tracy Cortez11 / 4112 / 421 / 20
2Rose Namajunas26 / 4627 / 481 / 10
3Tracy Cortez2 / 98 / 160 / 10
3Rose Namajunas5 / 1215 / 312 / 20
4Tracy Cortez12 / 4415 / 491 / 10
4Rose Namajunas11 / 2817 / 351 / 10
5Rose Namajunas28 / 4430 / 461 / 10
5Tracy Cortez21 / 6136 / 810 / 10

Rose Namajunas

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights19

Tracy Cortez

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights9