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Women's Strawweight
5 Rounds
Rose Namajunas won · SUB R5
Elo1499
Elo1492
Paige VanZant

Rose NamajunasvsPaige VanZantUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · Thursday, December 10, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rose Namajunas won

SUB · Round 5 · 2:25

Style matchupRose Namajunas: Well-roundedvsPaige VanZant: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Paige VanZant wins(70.0%)

Actual result: Rose Namajunas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paige VanZant at -140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rose Namajunas has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Rose Namajunas has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rose Namajunas
Red Corner
VS
Paige VanZant
Blue Corner
+120
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-140
(58%)
1499
Elo
1492
34
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'4"
165.1 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rose Namajunas
oldest →
W
vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 24
W
vs Tracy Cortez · Jul 24
L
vs Erin Blanchfield · Nov 24
W
vs Miranda Maverick · Jun 25
L
vs Natalia Silva · Jan 26
latest
Paige VanZant
oldest →
W
KOvs Bec Rawlings · Aug 16
L
SUBvs Michelle Waterson · Dec 16
L
vs Jessica-Rose Clark · Jan 18
W
SUBvs Rachael Ostovich · Jan 19
L
SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jul 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rose NamajunasMetricPaige VanZant
3.50
Strikes / min
3.35
3.38
Strikes absorbed / min
2.62
63%
Strike defense
42%
1.47
TDs / 15 min
1.27
62%
Takedown defense
34%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.12evenly matched on net striking+0.73

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1547Strikes20.5 vs 67.0Takedowns1.0 vs 2.7Sub Atts0.50 vs 1.33Form0.4 vs 1.0
Rose NamajunasPaige VanZant

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Rose Namajunas(10 fights)Paige VanZant(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +6.5|Blue -6.5
Recent Form
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score
Red -1.8|Blue +1.8
Grappler Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Layoff
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rose NamajunasTargetPaige VanZant

By target zone

43
52% acc · 75%
Head
2
7% acc · 20%
12
75% acc · 21%
Body
4
27% acc · 40%
2
100% acc · 4%
Leg
4
80% acc · 40%

By position

27
51% acc · 47%
Distance
8
17% acc · 80%
9
69% acc · 16%
Clinch
2
50% acc · 20%
21
62% acc · 37%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Rose Namajunas rounds
0
even
0
Paige VanZant rounds
Round 1Rose Namajunas edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns2
Control3:09
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Rose Namajunas edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control3:37
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Round 3Rose Namajunas edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns2
Control3:19
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Round 4Rose Namajunas edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns2
Control4:24
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:18Control
Round 5Rose Namajunas edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control2:11
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
57 / 100
Sig Strikes
10 / 50
64.2%
Sig Str %
24.6%
104 / 158
Total Strikes
53 / 97
8 / 10
TDs
0 / 2
86.6%
TD %
0%
4
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
16:40
Ctrl Time
0:26

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Paige VanZant2 / 1413 / 260 / 10
1Rose Namajunas20 / 4028 / 532 / 20
2Paige VanZant1 / 511 / 170 / 10
2Rose Namajunas10 / 1820 / 281 / 30
3Paige VanZant3 / 2114 / 330 / 00
3Rose Namajunas17 / 3028 / 452 / 21
4Rose Namajunas7 / 723 / 232 / 22
4Paige VanZant1 / 38 / 100 / 00
5Paige VanZant3 / 77 / 110 / 00
5Rose Namajunas3 / 55 / 91 / 11

Rose Namajunas

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights19

Paige VanZant

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights9