Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Rose Namajunas won · U-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1513

Rose NamajunasvsMiranda MaverickUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · Saturday, June 14, 2025Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Rose Namajunas won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRose Namajunas: Well-roundedvsMiranda Maverick: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Rose Namajunas wins(61.6%)

Actual result: Rose Namajunas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rose Namajunas at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Miranda Maverick enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Rose Namajunas has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Miranda Maverick (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rose Namajunas

Red Corner

Miranda Maverick

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1499

Elo

1513

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'3"

165.1 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rose NamajunasL2 streak

oldest →

vs Manon Fiorot · Sep 23

vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 24

vs Tracy Cortez · Jul 24

vs Erin Blanchfield · Nov 24

vs Natalia Silva · Jan 26

latest

Miranda MaverickW4 streak

oldest →

vs Jasmine Jasudavicius · Jun 23

SUBvs Priscila Cachoeira · Jul 23

vs Andrea Lee · Feb 24

vs Dione Barbosa · Jul 24

vs Jamey-Lyn Horth · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rose NamajunasMetricMiranda Maverick

3.50

Strikes / min

3.22

3.38

Strikes absorbed / min

2.25

63%

Strike defense

61%

1.47

TDs / 15 min

2.16

62%

Takedown defense

45%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.12evenly matched on net striking+0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rose NamajunasMiranda Maverick

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rose Namajunas(10 fights)Miranda Maverick(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rose NamajunasTargetMiranda Maverick

By target zone

29% acc · 88%

Head

23% acc · 56%

30% acc · 12%

Body

83% acc · 20%

0% acc

Leg

86% acc · 24%

By position

28% acc · 92%

Distance

34% acc · 100%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

0% acc

50% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rose Namajunas rounds

even

Miranda Maverick rounds

Round 1Miranda Maverick edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:15

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Rose Namajunas edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control3:05

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

Round 3Rose Namajunas edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control3:13

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:03Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 86

Sig Strikes

25 / 74

29%

Sig Str %

23%

46 / 118

Total Strikes

52 / 108

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 2

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:33

Ctrl Time

1:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Miranda Maverick	20 / 58	20 / 58	0 / 0	0
1	Rose Namajunas	17 / 59	18 / 60	0 / 2	0
2	Miranda Maverick	5 / 14	22 / 33	0 / 0	1
2	Rose Namajunas	5 / 17	9 / 26	2 / 2	0
3	Miranda Maverick	0 / 2	10 / 17	0 / 2	0
3	Rose Namajunas	3 / 10	19 / 32	0 / 0	0

Rose Namajunas

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights19

Miranda Maverick

StanceSouthpaw

Height63.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights13