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Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Rose Namajunas won · SUB R2
Elo1499
Elo1493

Rose NamajunasvsMichelle WatersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · Saturday, April 15, 2017Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Rose Namajunas won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:47

Model Prediction: Michelle Waterson wins(51.0%)

Actual result: Rose Namajunas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michelle Waterson at -130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Rose Namajunas
Red Corner
VS
Michelle Waterson
Blue Corner
+110
(48%)
Vegas Odds
-130
(57%)
1499
Elo
1493
34
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'3"
165.1 cm
Reach
157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rose Namajunas
oldest →
W
vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 24
W
vs Tracy Cortez · Jul 24
L
vs Erin Blanchfield · Nov 24
W
vs Miranda Maverick · Jun 25
L
vs Natalia Silva · Jan 26
latest
Michelle Waterson
oldest →
W
vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Mar 19
L
vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk · Oct 19
L
vs Carla Esparza · May 20
W
vs Angela Hill · Sep 20
L
vs Marina Rodriguez · May 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rose NamajunasMetricMichelle Waterson
3.50
Strikes / min
—
3.38
Strikes absorbed / min
—
63%
Strike defense
—
1.47
TDs / 15 min
—
62%
Takedown defense
—
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1520 vs 1533Strikes42.8 vs 29.5Takedowns2.8 vs 2.0Sub Atts1.00 vs 3.00Form0.2 vs 1.0
Rose NamajunasMichelle Waterson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Rose Namajunas(10 fights)Michelle Waterson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +5.6|Blue -5.6
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red +140.0|Blue -140.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Rose Namajunas

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights19

Michelle Waterson

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach62.0"
Fights3