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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Karolina Kowalkiewicz won · S-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1483

Rose NamajunasvsKarolina KowalkiewiczUFC Prediction Result

UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · Saturday, July 30, 2016Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Karolina Kowalkiewicz won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRose Namajunas: Well-roundedvsKarolina Kowalkiewicz: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Rose Namajunas wins(55.9%)

Actual result: Karolina Kowalkiewicz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rose Namajunas at -190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Rose Namajunas

Red Corner

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1499

Elo

1483

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'3"

165.1 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rose Namajunas

oldest →

vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 24

vs Tracy Cortez · Jul 24

vs Erin Blanchfield · Nov 24

vs Miranda Maverick · Jun 25

vs Natalia Silva · Jan 26

latest

Karolina KowalkiewiczL3 streak

oldest →

vs Vanessa Demopoulos · May 23

vs Diana Belbita · Oct 23

vs Iasmin Lucindo · May 24

vs Denise Gomes · Nov 24

KOvs Julia Polastri · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rose NamajunasMetricKarolina Kowalkiewicz

3.50

Strikes / min

5.54

3.38

Strikes absorbed / min

5.77

63%

Strike defense

56%

1.47

TDs / 15 min

0.36

62%

Takedown defense

74%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.12evenly matched on net striking-0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rose NamajunasKarolina Kowalkiewicz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rose Namajunas(10 fights)Karolina Kowalkiewicz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +15.5|Blue -15.5

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +22.0|Blue -22.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rose NamajunasTargetKarolina Kowalkiewicz

By target zone

42% acc · 74%

Head

24% acc · 52%

77% acc · 14%

Body

76% acc · 35%

89% acc · 11%

Leg

58% acc · 13%

By position

43% acc · 71%

Distance

21% acc · 43%

64% acc · 23%

Clinch

73% acc · 49%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

58% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rose Namajunas rounds

even

Karolina Kowalkiewicz rounds

Round 1Rose Namajunas edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns2

Control0:21

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Karolina Kowalkiewicz edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control2:04

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Karolina Kowalkiewicz edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

70 / 145

Sig Strikes

84 / 242

48.3%

Sig Str %

34.3%

74 / 149

Total Strikes

128 / 293

2 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

33.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:25

Ctrl Time

2:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	15 / 86	15 / 86	0 / 0
1	Rose Namajunas	24 / 56	25 / 57	2 / 2
2	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	44 / 87	61 / 104	0 / 0
2	Rose Namajunas	27 / 44	29 / 46	0 / 2
3	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	25 / 69	52 / 103	0 / 0
3	Rose Namajunas	19 / 45	20 / 46	0 / 2

Rose Namajunas

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights19

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights19