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Women's Strawweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Rose Namajunas won · U-DEC R5

Elo1499

Elo1427

Rose NamajunasvsJoanna JedrzejczykUFC Prediction Result

UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · Saturday, April 7, 2018Brooklyn, New York, USA

Official fight result

Rose Namajunas won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupRose Namajunas: Well-roundedvsJoanna Jedrzejczyk: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Joanna Jedrzejczyk wins(61.1%)

Actual result: Rose Namajunas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joanna Jedrzejczyk at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rose Namajunas

Red Corner

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1499

Elo

1427

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'6"

165.1 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rose Namajunas

oldest →

vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 24

vs Tracy Cortez · Jul 24

vs Erin Blanchfield · Nov 24

vs Miranda Maverick · Jun 25

vs Natalia Silva · Jan 26

latest

Joanna JedrzejczykL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tecia Torres · Jul 18

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Dec 18

vs Michelle Waterson · Oct 19

vs Weili Zhang · Mar 20

KOvs Zhang Weili · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rose NamajunasMetricJoanna Jedrzejczyk

3.50

Strikes / min

6.28

3.38

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

63%

Strike defense

62%

1.47

TDs / 15 min

0.27

62%

Takedown defense

80%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.12Δ 2.91 — meaningful gap+3.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rose NamajunasJoanna Jedrzejczyk

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rose Namajunas(10 fights)Joanna Jedrzejczyk(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +71.5|Blue -71.5

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -2.6|Blue +2.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rose NamajunasTargetJoanna Jedrzejczyk

By target zone

31% acc · 81%

Head

25% acc · 44%

63% acc · 14%

Body

73% acc · 19%

71% acc · 5%

Leg

87% acc · 37%

By position

105

35% acc · 100%

Distance

135

39% acc · 93%

Clinch

71% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rose Namajunas rounds

even

Joanna Jedrzejczyk rounds

Round 1Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:01

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:30

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Even round

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control0:25

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

105 / 301

Sig Strikes

145 / 356

34.8%

Sig Str %

40.4%

108 / 304

Total Strikes

160 / 372

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:56

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	24 / 67	24 / 67	0 / 0
1	Rose Namajunas	21 / 64	21 / 64	0 / 0
2	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	25 / 60	27 / 62	0 / 0
2	Rose Namajunas	20 / 45	20 / 45	0 / 0
3	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	30 / 68	30 / 68	0 / 0
3	Rose Namajunas	19 / 60	19 / 60	0 / 1
4	Rose Namajunas	22 / 62	22 / 62	0 / 0
4	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	38 / 77	38 / 77	0 / 0
5	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	28 / 84	41 / 98	0 / 0
5	Rose Namajunas	23 / 70	26 / 73	1 / 1

Rose Namajunas

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights19

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights15