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Women's Strawweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Jessica Andrade won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1499

Elo1484

Rose NamajunasvsJessica AndradeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · Saturday, May 11, 2019Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Jessica Andrade won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:58

Style matchupRose Namajunas: Well-roundedvsJessica Andrade: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Rose Namajunas wins(50.2%)

Actual result: Jessica Andrade wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rose Namajunas at +120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jessica Andrade enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Rose Namajunas

Red Corner

Jessica Andrade

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1499

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'1"

165.1 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rose Namajunas

oldest →

vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 24

vs Tracy Cortez · Jul 24

vs Erin Blanchfield · Nov 24

vs Miranda Maverick · Jun 25

vs Natalia Silva · Jan 26

latest

Jessica AndradeL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mackenzie Dern · Nov 23

vs Marina Rodriguez · Apr 24

vs Natalia Silva · Sep 24

SUBvs Jasmine Jasudavicius · May 25

vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rose NamajunasMetricJessica Andrade

3.50

Strikes / min

6.37

3.38

Strikes absorbed / min

5.58

63%

Strike defense

54%

1.47

TDs / 15 min

2.10

62%

Takedown defense

75%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.12evenly matched on net striking+0.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rose NamajunasJessica Andrade

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rose Namajunas(10 fights)Jessica Andrade(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +15.4|Blue -15.4

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +154.0|Blue -154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rose NamajunasTargetJessica Andrade

By target zone

44% acc · 98%

Head

25% acc · 36%

100% acc · 2%

Body

65% acc · 23%

Leg

95% acc · 40%

By position

42% acc · 91%

Distance

42% acc · 87%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

83% acc · 11%

67% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rose Namajunas rounds

even

Jessica Andrade rounds

Round 1Rose Namajunas edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:29

Knockdowns1

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:22Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:16Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 125

Sig Strikes

47 / 105

43.5%

Sig Str %

44.5%

55 / 125

Total Strikes

49 / 107

0 / 2

TDs

2 / 4

TD %

66.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:29

Ctrl Time

0:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jessica Andrade	24 / 50	25 / 51	1 / 3	0
1	Rose Namajunas	30 / 67	30 / 67	0 / 1	1
2	Jessica Andrade	23 / 55	24 / 56	1 / 1	0
2	Rose Namajunas	25 / 58	25 / 58	0 / 1	0

Rose Namajunas

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights19

Jessica Andrade

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights30