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Women's Strawweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Carla Esparza won · S-DEC R5
Elo1499
Elo1497
Carla Esparza

Rose NamajunasvsCarla EsparzaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · Saturday, May 7, 2022Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Carla Esparza won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupRose Namajunas: Well-roundedvsCarla Esparza: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Rose Namajunas wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Carla Esparza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rose Namajunas at -235 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rose Namajunas has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rose Namajunas
Red Corner
VS
Carla Esparza
Blue Corner
-235
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+190
(34%)
1499
Elo
1497
34
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'1"
165.1 cm
Reach
160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rose Namajunas
oldest →
W
vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 24
W
vs Tracy Cortez · Jul 24
L
vs Erin Blanchfield · Nov 24
W
vs Miranda Maverick · Jun 25
L
vs Natalia Silva · Jan 26
latest
Carla EsparzaL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Michelle Waterson · May 20
W
vs Marina Rodriguez · Jul 20
W
KOvs Yan Xiaonan · May 21
L
SUBvs Zhang Weili · Nov 22
L
vs Tecia Pennington · Oct 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rose NamajunasMetricCarla Esparza
3.50
Strikes / min
2.19
3.38
Strikes absorbed / min
2.87
63%
Strike defense
54%
1.47
TDs / 15 min
3.28
62%
Takedown defense
47%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.12evenly matched on net striking-0.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1602 vs 1571Strikes3.7 vs 2.2Takedowns1.6 vs 3.2Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.30Form0.9 vs 1.0
Rose NamajunasCarla Esparza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Rose Namajunas(10 fights)Carla Esparza(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +2.0|Blue -2.0
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -168.0|Blue +168.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rose NamajunasTargetCarla Esparza

By target zone

30
25% acc · 81%
Head
15
14% acc · 50%
6
50% acc · 16%
Body
4
36% acc · 13%
1
50% acc · 3%
Leg
11
79% acc · 37%

By position

36
27% acc · 97%
Distance
27
21% acc · 90%
1
100% acc · 3%
Clinch
3
60% acc · 10%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Rose Namajunas rounds
3
even
1
Carla Esparza rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 4Carla Esparza edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:02
8Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
0:20Control
Round 5Rose Namajunas edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control0:08
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
37 / 136
Sig Strikes
30 / 133
25.2%
Sig Str %
22%
38 / 137
Total Strikes
30 / 133
1 / 1
TDs
2 / 11
100%
TD %
10%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:10
Ctrl Time
0:22

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Carla Esparza4 / 194 / 190 / 00
1Rose Namajunas4 / 194 / 190 / 00
2Carla Esparza4 / 224 / 220 / 10
2Rose Namajunas3 / 143 / 140 / 00
3Carla Esparza9 / 329 / 320 / 30
3Rose Namajunas11 / 3611 / 360 / 00
4Rose Namajunas6 / 287 / 290 / 00
4Carla Esparza8 / 298 / 292 / 50
5Carla Esparza5 / 315 / 310 / 20
5Rose Namajunas13 / 3913 / 391 / 10

Rose Namajunas

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights19

Carla Esparza

StanceOrthodox
Height61.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights15