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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Rory MacDonald won · U-DEC R3

Elo1357

Elo1398

Rory MacDonaldvsTyron WoodleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · Saturday, June 14, 2014Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Rory MacDonald won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Rory MacDonald wins(58.9%)

Actual result: Rory MacDonald wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rory MacDonald at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tyron Woodley enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Tyron Woodley is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Rory MacDonald has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Rory MacDonald

Red Corner

Tyron Woodley

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1357

Elo

1398

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'9"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rory MacDonaldL2 streak

oldest →

vs Robbie Lawler · Nov 13

vs Demian Maia · Feb 14

KOvs Tarec Saffiedine · Oct 14

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 15

vs Stephen Thompson · Jun 16

latest

Tyron WoodleyL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 18

vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 19

vs Gilbert Burns · May 20

KOvs Colby Covington · Sep 20

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Mar 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rory MacDonaldMetricTyron Woodley

3.75

Strikes / min

2.36

2.80

Strikes absorbed / min

2.76

62%

Strike defense

54%

1.77

TDs / 15 min

1.06

88%

Takedown defense

87%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rory MacDonaldTyron Woodley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rory MacDonald(10 fights)Tyron Woodley(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -40.6|Blue +40.6

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rory MacDonaldTargetTyron Woodley

By target zone

25% acc · 59%

Head

16% acc · 38%

61% acc · 39%

Body

69% acc · 35%

25% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 27%

By position

32% acc · 94%

Distance

26% acc · 69%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

67% acc · 31%

50% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rory MacDonald rounds

even

Tyron Woodley rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:25Control

Round 2Rory MacDonald edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Rory MacDonald edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control3:07

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 150

Sig Strikes

26 / 81

31.7%

Sig Str %

31.3%

97 / 202

Total Strikes

38 / 94

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 2

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:07

Ctrl Time

1:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tyron Woodley	10 / 26	20 / 37	0 / 1
1	Rory MacDonald	11 / 47	12 / 48	0 / 0
2	Tyron Woodley	11 / 29	12 / 30	0 / 1
2	Rory MacDonald	28 / 75	28 / 75	0 / 1
3	Tyron Woodley	5 / 26	6 / 27	0 / 0
3	Rory MacDonald	10 / 28	57 / 79	1 / 1

Rory MacDonald

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12

Tyron Woodley

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights15