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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Rory MacDonald won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1357

Elo1361

Rory MacDonaldvsTarec SaffiedineUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · Saturday, October 4, 2014Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Official fight result

Rory MacDonald won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:28

Style matchupRory MacDonald: Elusive strikervsTarec Saffiedine: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Tarec Saffiedine wins(59.5%)

Actual result: Rory MacDonald wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tarec Saffiedine at +380 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tarec Saffiedine enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Tarec Saffiedine (52.9%).
Rory MacDonald has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rory MacDonald

Red Corner

Tarec Saffiedine

Blue Corner

-430

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+380

(21%)

1357

Elo

1361

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'0"

Height

5'10"

193.04 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rory MacDonaldL2 streak

oldest →

vs Robbie Lawler · Nov 13

vs Demian Maia · Feb 14

vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 14

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 15

vs Stephen Thompson · Jun 16

latest

Tarec SaffiedineL3 streak

oldest →

vs Hyun Gyu Lim · Jan 14

vs Jake Ellenberger · Jan 16

vs Rick Story · May 16

vs Dong Hyun Kim · Dec 16

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Jun 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rory MacDonaldMetricTarec Saffiedine

3.75

Strikes / min

4.05

2.80

Strikes absorbed / min

3.06

62%

Strike defense

62%

1.77

TDs / 15 min

0.52

88%

Takedown defense

84%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95evenly matched on net striking+0.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rory MacDonaldTarec Saffiedine

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rory MacDonald(10 fights)Tarec Saffiedine(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.5|Blue +3.5

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +2.1|Blue -2.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -161.0|Blue +161.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rory MacDonaldTargetTarec Saffiedine

By target zone

37% acc · 74%

Head

17% acc · 43%

50% acc · 11%

Body

40% acc · 5%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

81% acc · 52%

By position

40% acc · 85%

Distance

31% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

88% acc · 15%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rory MacDonald rounds

even

Tarec Saffiedine rounds

Round 1Rory MacDonald edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:13

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Tarec Saffiedine edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Rory MacDonald edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:07

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 111

Sig Strikes

42 / 136

45.7%

Sig Str %

30.7%

48 / 113

Total Strikes

42 / 136

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:20

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tarec Saffiedine	10 / 41	10 / 41	0 / 0
1	Rory MacDonald	15 / 46	16 / 48	1 / 2
2	Tarec Saffiedine	23 / 70	23 / 70	0 / 0
2	Rory MacDonald	21 / 47	21 / 47	0 / 0
3	Tarec Saffiedine	9 / 25	9 / 25	0 / 0
3	Rory MacDonald	11 / 18	11 / 18	0 / 1

Rory MacDonald

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12

Tarec Saffiedine

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6