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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Stephen Thompson won · U-DEC R5

Elo1357

Elo1482

Rory MacDonaldvsStephen ThompsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · Saturday, June 18, 2016Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Stephen Thompson won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupRory MacDonald: Elusive strikervsStephen Thompson: Striker

Two strikers, different gameplans. Volume vs precision — judges typically favor activity.

Model Prediction: Stephen Thompson wins(59.9%)

Actual result: Stephen Thompson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stephen Thompson at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stephen Thompson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Rory MacDonald has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Rory MacDonald has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rory MacDonald

Red Corner

Stephen Thompson

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1357

Elo

1482

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rory MacDonald

oldest →

vs Robbie Lawler · Nov 13

vs Demian Maia · Feb 14

vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 14

KOvs Tarec Saffiedine · Oct 14

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 15

latest

Stephen ThompsonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24

vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rory MacDonaldMetricStephen Thompson

3.75

Strikes / min

4.05

2.80

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

62%

Strike defense

54%

1.77

TDs / 15 min

0.23

88%

Takedown defense

63%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95evenly matched on net striking+1.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rory MacDonaldStephen Thompson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rory MacDonald(10 fights)Stephen Thompson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -125.3|Blue +125.3

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +210.0|Blue -210.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rory MacDonaldTargetStephen Thompson

By target zone

36% acc · 82%

Head

34% acc · 65%

71% acc · 16%

Body

68% acc · 21%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

94% acc · 15%

By position

35% acc · 77%

Distance

40% acc · 88%

85% acc · 18%

Clinch

67% acc · 7%

75% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rory MacDonald rounds

even

Stephen Thompson rounds

Round 1Stephen Thompson edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 2Stephen Thompson edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:08

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Stephen Thompson edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 4Stephen Thompson edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Stephen Thompson edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:49Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 152

Sig Strikes

110 / 259

37%

Sig Str %

41.8%

62 / 153

Total Strikes

124 / 274

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

1:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Stephen Thompson	9 / 21	11 / 23	0 / 0
1	Rory MacDonald	4 / 13	4 / 13	0 / 0
2	Stephen Thompson	13 / 40	14 / 41	0 / 0
2	Rory MacDonald	6 / 24	6 / 24	0 / 1
3	Stephen Thompson	25 / 48	26 / 49	0 / 0
3	Rory MacDonald	17 / 37	17 / 37	0 / 0
4	Rory MacDonald	14 / 37	15 / 38	0 / 0
4	Stephen Thompson	29 / 72	30 / 74	0 / 0
5	Stephen Thompson	34 / 78	43 / 87	0 / 0
5	Rory MacDonald	20 / 41	20 / 41	0 / 1

Rory MacDonald

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12

Stephen Thompson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights21