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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Robbie Lawler won · S-DEC R3

Elo1357

Elo1499

Rory MacDonaldvsRobbie LawlerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · Saturday, November 16, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Robbie Lawler won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRory MacDonald: Elusive strikervsRobbie Lawler: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Rory MacDonald wins(59.9%)

Actual result: Robbie Lawler wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rory MacDonald at -410 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Robbie Lawler is a KO finisher (55% of wins). Rory MacDonald has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Rory MacDonald has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Robbie Lawler (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Rory MacDonald

Red Corner

Robbie Lawler

Blue Corner

-410

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+365

(22%)

1357

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rory MacDonaldL2 streak

oldest →

vs Demian Maia · Feb 14

vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 14

KOvs Tarec Saffiedine · Oct 14

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 15

vs Stephen Thompson · Jun 16

latest

Robbie Lawler

oldest →

vs Colby Covington · Aug 19

SUBvs Neil Magny · Aug 20

KOvs Nick Diaz · Sep 21

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Jul 22

KOvs Niko Price · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rory MacDonaldMetricRobbie Lawler

3.75

Strikes / min

3.85

2.80

Strikes absorbed / min

4.67

62%

Strike defense

59%

1.77

TDs / 15 min

0.65

88%

Takedown defense

65%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95Δ 1.77 — meaningful gap-0.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rory MacDonaldRobbie Lawler

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rory MacDonald(10 fights)Robbie Lawler(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -141.9|Blue +141.9

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rory MacDonaldTargetRobbie Lawler

By target zone

28% acc · 57%

Head

33% acc · 57%

50% acc · 41%

Body

56% acc · 11%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

78% acc · 32%

By position

33% acc · 76%

Distance

42% acc · 73%

33% acc · 3%

Clinch

43% acc · 7%

40% acc · 22%

Ground

50% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rory MacDonald rounds

even

Robbie Lawler rounds

Round 1Robbie Lawler edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Rory MacDonald edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control2:01

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Robbie Lawler edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns3

Control1:04

Knockdowns0

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:22Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 107

Sig Strikes

44 / 102

33.7%

Sig Str %

42%

41 / 111

Total Strikes

65 / 126

4 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

62.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:05

Ctrl Time

2:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Robbie Lawler	14 / 33	15 / 34	0 / 0	0
1	Rory MacDonald	7 / 34	7 / 34	0 / 0	0
2	Robbie Lawler	8 / 20	16 / 29	0 / 0	0
2	Rory MacDonald	17 / 42	18 / 43	1 / 2	0
3	Robbie Lawler	22 / 49	34 / 63	0 / 0	0
3	Rory MacDonald	13 / 31	16 / 34	3 / 4	1

Rory MacDonald

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12

Robbie Lawler

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18