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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Rory MacDonald won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1357

Elo1364

Rory MacDonaldvsMike PyleUFC Prediction Result

UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2 · Saturday, August 6, 2011Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Rory MacDonald won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:54

Style matchupRory MacDonald: Elusive strikervsMike Pyle: Submission grappler

The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.

Model Prediction: Mike Pyle wins(59.9%)

Actual result: Rory MacDonald wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Pyle at +235 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Pyle enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mike Pyle is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Rory MacDonald has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Rory MacDonald has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rory MacDonald

Red Corner

Mike Pyle

Blue Corner

-255

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1357

Elo

1364

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rory MacDonaldL2 streak

oldest →

vs Demian Maia · Feb 14

vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 14

KOvs Tarec Saffiedine · Oct 14

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 15

vs Stephen Thompson · Jun 16

latest

Mike PyleL3 streak

oldest →

vs Colby Covington · May 15

KOvs Sean Spencer · Feb 16

KOvs Alberto Mina · Jul 16

KOvs Alex Garcia · Dec 16

KOvs Zak Ottow · Mar 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rory MacDonaldMetricMike Pyle

3.75

Strikes / min

2.74

2.80

Strikes absorbed / min

2.84

62%

Strike defense

60%

1.77

TDs / 15 min

1.80

88%

Takedown defense

70%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95Δ 1.05 — meaningful gap-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rory MacDonaldMike Pyle

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rory MacDonald(10 fights)Mike Pyle(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rory MacDonaldTargetMike Pyle

By target zone

62% acc · 88%

Head

7% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 67%

By position

44% acc · 17%

Distance

8% acc · 33%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

67% acc · 67%

73% acc · 79%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rory MacDonald rounds

even

Mike Pyle rounds

Round 1Rory MacDonald edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control1:48

3Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 37

Sig Strikes

3 / 17

64%

Sig Str %

17%

27 / 40

Total Strikes

25 / 41

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 4

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:48

Ctrl Time

1:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mike Pyle	3 / 17	25 / 41	2 / 4	0
1	Rory MacDonald	24 / 37	27 / 40	0 / 0	2

Rory MacDonald

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12

Mike Pyle

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16