Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Welterweight
3 Rounds
Rory MacDonald won · U-DEC R3
Elo1357
Rory MacDonald
Elo1367

Rory MacDonaldvsJake EllenbergerUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · Saturday, July 27, 2013Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Rory MacDonald won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRory MacDonald: Elusive strikervsJake Ellenberger: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Rory MacDonald wins(66.2%)

Actual result: Rory MacDonald wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rory MacDonald at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Jake Ellenberger is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Rory MacDonald has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Rory MacDonald has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rory MacDonald
Red Corner
VS
Jake Ellenberger
Blue Corner
-230
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+210
(32%)
1357
Elo
1367
37
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'9"
193.04 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rory MacDonaldL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Demian Maia · Feb 14
W
vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 14
W
KOvs Tarec Saffiedine · Oct 14
L
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 15
L
vs Stephen Thompson · Jun 16
latest
Jake EllenbergerL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16
L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16
L
KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17
L
KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18
L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rory MacDonaldMetricJake Ellenberger
3.75
Strikes / min
2.47
2.80
Strikes absorbed / min
2.83
62%
Strike defense
60%
1.77
TDs / 15 min
2.04
88%
Takedown defense
86%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.95Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap-0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1556 vs 1595Strikes44.3 vs 24.3Takedowns2.5 vs 1.8Sub Atts0.67 vs 0.30Form0.9 vs 0.7
Rory MacDonaldJake Ellenberger

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Rory MacDonald(10 fights)Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -10.0|Blue +10.0
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +98.0|Blue -98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rory MacDonaldTargetJake Ellenberger

By target zone

37
36% acc · 80%
Head
16
18% acc · 84%
9
56% acc · 20%
Body
2
40% acc · 11%
0
Leg
1
33% acc · 5%

By position

44
38% acc · 96%
Distance
17
18% acc · 89%
2
67% acc · 4%
Clinch
1
33% acc · 5%
0
Ground
1
100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Rory MacDonald rounds
0
even
0
Jake Ellenberger rounds
Round 1Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:00
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:00
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 3Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:01Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
46 / 118
Sig Strikes
19 / 97
38.3%
Sig Str %
19.7%
48 / 120
Total Strikes
27 / 106
0 / 1
TDs
1 / 3
0%
TD %
25%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
1:04

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jake Ellenberger5 / 295 / 290 / 00
1Rory MacDonald15 / 3715 / 370 / 00
2Jake Ellenberger4 / 365 / 370 / 10
2Rory MacDonald13 / 3713 / 370 / 10
3Jake Ellenberger10 / 3217 / 401 / 20
3Rory MacDonald18 / 4420 / 460 / 00

Rory MacDonald

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12

Jake Ellenberger

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights19