← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Rory MacDonald won · U-DEC R3

Elo1357

Elo1402

Rory MacDonaldvsDemian MaiaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · Saturday, February 22, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rory MacDonald won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRory MacDonald: Elusive strikervsDemian Maia: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Rory MacDonald wins(63.6%)

Actual result: Rory MacDonald wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rory MacDonald at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rory MacDonald has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).
Rory MacDonald has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rory MacDonald

Red Corner

Demian Maia

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1357

Elo

1402

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rory MacDonaldL2 streak

oldest →

vs Robbie Lawler · Nov 13

vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 14

KOvs Tarec Saffiedine · Oct 14

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 15

vs Stephen Thompson · Jun 16

latest

Demian MaiaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19

DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19

SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19

KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20

vs Belal Muhammad · Jun 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rory MacDonaldMetricDemian Maia

3.75

Strikes / min

1.80

2.80

Strikes absorbed / min

2.07

62%

Strike defense

63%

1.77

TDs / 15 min

2.49

88%

Takedown defense

61%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95Δ 1.22 — meaningful gap-0.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rory MacDonaldDemian Maia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rory MacDonald(10 fights)Demian Maia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -45.2|Blue +45.2

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -38.0|Blue +38.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rory MacDonaldTargetDemian Maia

By target zone

31% acc · 83%

Head

36% acc · 73%

80% acc · 16%

Body

78% acc · 14%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

88% acc · 14%

By position

36% acc · 99%

Distance

32% acc · 59%

0% acc

Clinch

25% acc · 1%

Ground

84% acc · 41%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rory MacDonald rounds

even

Demian Maia rounds

Round 1Demian Maia edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:51Control

Round 2Rory MacDonald edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:02

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Rory MacDonald edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:05

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

75 / 213

Sig Strikes

51 / 120

32.7%

Sig Str %

43.3%

77 / 215

Total Strikes

81 / 152

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 22

—

TD %

11.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

5:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Demian Maia	27 / 38	52 / 64	1 / 4
1	Rory MacDonald	6 / 22	8 / 24	0 / 0
2	Demian Maia	13 / 36	13 / 36	0 / 7
2	Rory MacDonald	40 / 108	40 / 108	0 / 0
3	Demian Maia	11 / 46	16 / 52	1 / 11
3	Rory MacDonald	29 / 83	29 / 83	0 / 0

Rory MacDonald

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12

Demian Maia

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights26