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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Rory MacDonald won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1357
Rory MacDonald
Elo1490
Che Mills

Rory MacDonaldvsChe MillsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 145: Jones vs Evans · Saturday, April 21, 2012Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Rory MacDonald won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:20

Model Prediction: Rory MacDonald wins(73.0%)

Actual result: Rory MacDonald wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rory MacDonald at -660 American odds

+$15 profit

$115 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Che Mills is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Rory MacDonald has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Rory MacDonald has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Rory MacDonald has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rory MacDonald
Red Corner
VS
Che Mills
Blue Corner
-660
(87%)
Vegas Odds
+540
(16%)
1357
Elo
1490
37
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'1"
193.04 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rory MacDonaldL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Demian Maia · Feb 14
W
vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 14
W
KOvs Tarec Saffiedine · Oct 14
L
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 15
L
vs Stephen Thompson · Jun 16
latest
Che MillsW2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Chris Cope · Nov 11
W
KOvs Duane Ludwig · Sep 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rory MacDonaldMetricChe Mills
3.75
Strikes / min
2.08
2.80
Strikes absorbed / min
2.87
62%
Strike defense
43%
1.77
TDs / 15 min
1.18
88%
Takedown defense
58%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.95Δ 1.74 — meaningful gap-0.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1523 vs 1519Strikes25.8 vs 11.0Takedowns3.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.00Form0.7 vs 1.0
Rory MacDonaldChe Mills

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Rory MacDonald(10 fights)Che Mills(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -133.0|Blue +133.0
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Layoff
Red +91.0|Blue -91.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rory MacDonaldTargetChe Mills

By target zone

45
68% acc · 96%
Head
2
12% acc · 33%
2
100% acc · 4%
Body
0
0
0% acc
Leg
4
80% acc · 67%

By position

3
33% acc · 6%
Distance
4
21% acc · 67%
0
Clinch
2
67% acc · 33%
44
73% acc · 94%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Rory MacDonald rounds
0
even
0
Che Mills rounds
Round 1Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns1
Control3:52
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:16Control
Round 2Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns1
Control1:59
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
47 / 69
Sig Strikes
6 / 22
67%
Sig Str %
29.5%
75 / 99
Total Strikes
21 / 38
2 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
5:51
Ctrl Time
0:16

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Che Mills5 / 1917 / 320 / 00
1Rory MacDonald28 / 3854 / 661 / 10
2Che Mills1 / 34 / 60 / 00
2Rory MacDonald19 / 3121 / 331 / 10

Rory MacDonald

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12

Che Mills

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights3