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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Vinc Pichel won · U-DEC R3

Elo1489

Elo1488

Roosevelt RobertsvsVinc PichelUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, June 29, 2019Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA

Official fight result

Vinc Pichel won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Vinc Pichel wins(68.3%)

Actual result: Vinc Pichel wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vinc Pichel at +205 American odds

+$205 profit

$305 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roosevelt Roberts enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Vinc Pichel enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Roosevelt Roberts has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Roosevelt Roberts

Red Corner

Vinc Pichel

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1489

Elo

1488

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roosevelt RobertsL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jun 20

vs Kevin Croom · Sep 20

KOvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Aug 21

SUBvs Mateusz Rebecki · Nov 23

vs Ludovit Klein · Sep 24

latest

Vinc PichelL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jim Miller · Aug 20

vs Austin Hubbard · Aug 21

vs Mark Madsen · Apr 22

vs Ismael Bonfim · May 24

vs Rafa Garcia · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roosevelt RobertsMetricVinc Pichel

2.84

Strikes / min

3.78

3.10

Strikes absorbed / min

3.17

52%

Strike defense

54%

1.18

TDs / 15 min

2.50

50%

Takedown defense

31%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.26evenly matched on net striking+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Roosevelt RobertsVinc Pichel

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Roosevelt Roberts(10 fights)Vinc Pichel(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -330.0|Blue +330.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roosevelt RobertsTargetVinc Pichel

By target zone

29% acc · 71%

Head

53% acc · 48%

75% acc · 19%

Body

62% acc · 27%

75% acc · 10%

Leg

75% acc · 25%

By position

33% acc · 84%

Distance

42% acc · 43%

83% acc · 16%

Clinch

88% acc · 23%

0% acc

Ground

87% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Roosevelt Roberts rounds

even

Vinc Pichel rounds

Round 1Roosevelt Roberts edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control1:24

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:47Control

Round 2Vinc Pichel edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:02

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:35Control

Round 3Vinc Pichel edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:08

21Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 87

Sig Strikes

60 / 101

33.3%

Sig Str %

59.3%

34 / 90

Total Strikes

81 / 122

2 / 3

TDs

3 / 6

75%

TD %

38.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:34

Ctrl Time

5:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Vinc Pichel	18 / 29	22 / 33	0 / 1	0
1	Roosevelt Roberts	17 / 43	17 / 43	1 / 2	0
2	Vinc Pichel	21 / 37	29 / 45	1 / 2	0
2	Roosevelt Roberts	10 / 30	13 / 33	1 / 1	0
3	Vinc Pichel	21 / 35	30 / 44	2 / 3	1
3	Roosevelt Roberts	4 / 14	4 / 14	0 / 0	0

Roosevelt Roberts

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10

Vinc Pichel

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12