← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Roosevelt Roberts won · U-DEC R3

Elo1489

Elo1377

Roosevelt RobertsvsThomas GiffordUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · Saturday, April 27, 2019Sunrise, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Roosevelt Roberts won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Roosevelt Roberts wins(75.1%)

Actual result: Roosevelt Roberts wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Roosevelt Roberts at -470 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roosevelt Roberts enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Roosevelt Roberts has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Roosevelt Roberts has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Roosevelt Roberts

Red Corner

Thomas Gifford

Blue Corner

-470

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+375

(21%)

1489

Elo

1377

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roosevelt RobertsL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jun 20

vs Kevin Croom · Sep 20

KOvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Aug 21

SUBvs Mateusz Rebecki · Nov 23

vs Ludovit Klein · Sep 24

latest

Thomas Gifford

oldest →

KOvs Mike Davis · Oct 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roosevelt RobertsMetricThomas Gifford

2.84

Strikes / min

3.97

3.10

Strikes absorbed / min

6.45

52%

Strike defense

37%

1.18

TDs / 15 min

0.50

50%

Takedown defense

33%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.26Δ 2.22 — meaningful gap-2.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Roosevelt RobertsThomas Gifford

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Roosevelt Roberts(10 fights)Thomas Gifford(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +112.3|Blue -112.3

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roosevelt RobertsTargetThomas Gifford

By target zone

56% acc · 77%

Head

30% acc · 53%

100% acc · 13%

Body

71% acc · 17%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

90% acc · 30%

By position

53% acc · 58%

Distance

38% acc · 80%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

80% acc · 13%

83% acc · 36%

Ground

100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Roosevelt Roberts rounds

even

Thomas Gifford rounds

Round 1Roosevelt Roberts edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control3:42

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Roosevelt Roberts edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control3:10

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Roosevelt Roberts edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control2:19

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:41Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 85

Sig Strikes

30 / 70

61.7%

Sig Str %

44%

95 / 132

Total Strikes

86 / 130

2 / 4

TDs

1 / 1

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

9:11

Ctrl Time

1:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Thomas Gifford	10 / 23	18 / 32	0 / 0
1	Roosevelt Roberts	19 / 31	30 / 42	1 / 2
2	Thomas Gifford	13 / 33	35 / 57	0 / 0
2	Roosevelt Roberts	20 / 31	31 / 44	0 / 0
3	Thomas Gifford	7 / 14	33 / 41	1 / 1
3	Roosevelt Roberts	14 / 23	34 / 46	1 / 2

Roosevelt Roberts

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10

Thomas Gifford

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights2