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Lightweight
3 Rounds
No Contest won · No Contest R1
Elo1489
Roosevelt Roberts
Elo1421

Roosevelt RobertsvsKevin CroomUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · Saturday, September 12, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

No Contest

No Contest · Round 1 · 0:31

Model Prediction: Roosevelt Roberts wins(82.2%)

Actual result: Kevin Croom wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Roosevelt Roberts at -385 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Roosevelt Roberts enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Kevin Croom enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Roosevelt Roberts has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Roosevelt Roberts has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Roosevelt Roberts
Red Corner
VS
Kevin Croom
Blue Corner
-385
(79%)
Vegas Odds
+286
(26%)
1489
Elo
1421
32
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
5'11"
185.42 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roosevelt RobertsL4 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Brok Weaver · May 20
L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jun 20
L
KOvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Aug 21
L
SUBvs Mateusz Rebecki · Nov 23
L
vs Ludovit Klein · Sep 24
latest
Kevin CroomL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Alex Caceres · Feb 21
L
vs Brian Kelleher · Jan 22
L
KOvs Alatengheili · Apr 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roosevelt RobertsMetricKevin Croom
2.84
Strikes / min
2.65
3.10
Strikes absorbed / min
3.10
52%
Strike defense
41%
1.18
TDs / 15 min
0.48
50%
Takedown defense
30%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.26evenly matched on net striking-0.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1535 vs 1500Strikes3.0 vs 0.0Takedowns1.8 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.10 vs 0.00Form0.1 vs 0.0
Roosevelt RobertsKevin Croom

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Roosevelt Roberts(10 fights)Kevin Croom(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +67.7|Blue -67.7
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Grappler Score
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roosevelt RobertsTargetKevin Croom

By target zone

2
50% acc · 100%
Head
2
100% acc · 40%
0
Body
1
50% acc · 20%
0
0% acc
Leg
2
100% acc · 40%

By position

2
40% acc · 100%
Distance
4
80% acc · 80%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
1
100% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Roosevelt Roberts rounds
0
even
1
Kevin Croom rounds
Round 1Kevin Croom edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:15Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
2 / 5
Sig Strikes
5 / 6
40%
Sig Str %
83%
2 / 5
Total Strikes
5 / 6
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:15

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Kevin Croom5 / 65 / 60 / 01
1Roosevelt Roberts2 / 52 / 50 / 10

Roosevelt Roberts

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights10

Kevin Croom

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4