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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Roosevelt Roberts won · SUB R1

Elo1489

Elo1369

Roosevelt RobertsvsDarrell HorcherUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · Friday, November 30, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Roosevelt Roberts won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:50

Model Prediction: Darrell Horcher wins(63.1%)

Actual result: Roosevelt Roberts wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Darrell Horcher at +280 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roosevelt Roberts enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Roosevelt Roberts threatens submissions; Darrell Horcher has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Roosevelt Roberts has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Darrell Horcher (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Roosevelt Roberts

Red Corner

Darrell Horcher

Blue Corner

-340

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+280

(26%)

1489

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roosevelt RobertsL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jun 20

vs Kevin Croom · Sep 20

KOvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Aug 21

SUBvs Mateusz Rebecki · Nov 23

vs Ludovit Klein · Sep 24

latest

Darrell Horcher

oldest →

KOvs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Apr 16

vs Devin Powell · Jun 17

vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roosevelt RobertsMetricDarrell Horcher

2.84

Strikes / min

2.05

3.10

Strikes absorbed / min

4.21

52%

Strike defense

39%

1.18

TDs / 15 min

0.35

50%

Takedown defense

47%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.26Δ 1.90 — meaningful gap-2.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Roosevelt RobertsDarrell Horcher

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Roosevelt Roberts(10 fights)Darrell Horcher(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +120.1|Blue -120.1

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +49.3|Blue -49.3

Grappler Score

Red +49.9|Blue -49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roosevelt RobertsTargetDarrell Horcher

By target zone

36% acc · 63%

Head

20% acc · 50%

80% acc · 25%

Body

71% acc · 50%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

0% acc

By position

45% acc · 94%

Distance

26% acc · 80%

50% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Roosevelt Roberts rounds

even

Darrell Horcher rounds

Round 1Roosevelt Roberts edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:05

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:56Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 35

Sig Strikes

10 / 33

45%

Sig Str %

30%

23 / 42

Total Strikes

19 / 43

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Darrell Horcher	10 / 33	19 / 43	0 / 1	0
1	Roosevelt Roberts	16 / 35	23 / 42	0 / 0	1

Roosevelt Roberts

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10

Darrell Horcher

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4