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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Roosevelt Roberts won · SUB R2

Elo1489

Elo1389

Roosevelt RobertsvsBrok WeaverUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · Saturday, May 30, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Roosevelt Roberts won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:26

Model Prediction: Brok Weaver wins(55.3%)

Actual result: Roosevelt Roberts wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brok Weaver at +300 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roosevelt Roberts enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Roosevelt Roberts threatens submissions; Brok Weaver has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Brok Weaver has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Brok Weaver (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Roosevelt Roberts

Red Corner

Brok Weaver

Blue Corner

-360

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+300

(25%)

1489

Elo

1389

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roosevelt RobertsL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jun 20

vs Kevin Croom · Sep 20

KOvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Aug 21

SUBvs Mateusz Rebecki · Nov 23

vs Ludovit Klein · Sep 24

latest

Brok Weaver

oldest →

vs Kazula Vargas · Feb 20

SUBvs Jalin Turner · Sep 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roosevelt RobertsMetricBrok Weaver

2.84

Strikes / min

4.78

3.10

Strikes absorbed / min

4.35

52%

Strike defense

46%

1.18

TDs / 15 min

0.41

50%

Takedown defense

66%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.26evenly matched on net striking+0.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Roosevelt RobertsBrok Weaver

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Roosevelt Roberts(10 fights)Brok Weaver(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +100.4|Blue -100.4

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roosevelt RobertsTargetBrok Weaver

By target zone

60% acc · 68%

Head

14% acc · 36%

70% acc · 18%

Body

82% acc · 64%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

0% acc

By position

54% acc · 63%

Distance

24% acc · 71%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

57% acc · 29%

100% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Roosevelt Roberts rounds

even

Brok Weaver rounds

Round 1Roosevelt Roberts edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:44

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:58Control

Round 2Roosevelt Roberts edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control2:20

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 61

Sig Strikes

14 / 48

67.5%

Sig Str %

33%

54 / 76

Total Strikes

26 / 62

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:04

Ctrl Time

2:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brok Weaver	9 / 36	17 / 45	0 / 0	0
1	Roosevelt Roberts	21 / 37	24 / 40	0 / 1	1
2	Brok Weaver	5 / 12	9 / 17	0 / 0	0
2	Roosevelt Roberts	19 / 24	30 / 36	1 / 2	2

Roosevelt Roberts

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10

Brok Weaver

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3