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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Rony Jason won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1360
Rony Jason
Elo1353
Steven Siler

Rony JasonvsSteven SilerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Henderson 2 · Sunday, March 23, 2014Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil

Official fight result

Rony Jason won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:17

Model Prediction: Rony Jason wins(50.1%)

Actual result: Rony Jason wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rony Jason at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rony Jason enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Steven Siler has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rony Jason
Red Corner
VS
Steven Siler
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
1360
Elo
1353
42
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'11"
185.42 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rony JasonL4 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Mike Wilkinson · Jun 13
L
KOvs Jeremy Stephens · Nov 13
L
vs Robert Peralta · May 14
L
vs Dennis Bermudez · Aug 16
L
vs Jeremy Kennedy · Mar 17
latest
Steven SilerL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Darren Elkins · Nov 12
W
vs Kurt Holobaugh · Apr 13
W
KOvs Mike Brown · Aug 13
L
vs Dennis Bermudez · Nov 13
L
vs Noad Lahat · Jul 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rony JasonMetricSteven Siler
2.04
Strikes / min
3.21
3.14
Strikes absorbed / min
2.96
53%
Strike defense
54%
0.59
TDs / 15 min
0.47
36%
Takedown defense
55%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.10Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1529 vs 1543Strikes22.5 vs 37.0Takedowns0.3 vs 0.4Sub Atts0.50 vs 1.43Form0.1 vs 0.1
Rony JasonSteven Siler

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Rony Jason(8 fights)Steven Siler(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +6.2|Blue -6.2
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -3.0|Blue +3.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rony JasonTargetSteven Siler

By target zone

3
38% acc · 100%
Head
5
42% acc · 45%
0
Body
2
50% acc · 18%
0
Leg
4
67% acc · 36%

By position

3
38% acc · 100%
Distance
10
48% acc · 91%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
1
100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Rony Jason rounds
1
even
0
Steven Siler rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:01
Knockdowns1
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
3 / 8
Sig Strikes
11 / 22
37%
Sig Str %
50%
3 / 8
Total Strikes
11 / 22
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:01
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Steven Siler11 / 2211 / 220 / 00
1Rony Jason3 / 83 / 80 / 00

Rony Jason

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8

Steven Siler

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights9