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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Rony Jason won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1360
Rony Jason
Elo1359
Sam Sicilia

Rony JasonvsSam SiciliaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · Saturday, October 13, 2012Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Rony Jason won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:16

Model Prediction: Rony Jason wins(75.8%)

Actual result: Rony Jason wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rony Jason at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rony Jason enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Sam Sicilia enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Sam Sicilia has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Rony Jason has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rony Jason
Red Corner
VS
Sam Sicilia
Blue Corner
-210
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+190
(34%)
1360
Elo
1359
42
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'8"
185.42 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rony JasonL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Jeremy Stephens · Nov 13
W
KOvs Steven Siler · Mar 14
L
vs Robert Peralta · May 14
L
vs Dennis Bermudez · Aug 16
L
vs Jeremy Kennedy · Mar 17
latest
Sam SiciliaL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Akira Corassani · Jan 15
W
vs Yaotzin Meza · Jul 15
L
KOvs Dooho Choi · Nov 15
L
SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Sep 16
L
vs Gavin Tucker · Feb 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rony JasonMetricSam Sicilia
2.04
Strikes / min
2.46
3.14
Strikes absorbed / min
3.55
53%
Strike defense
59%
0.59
TDs / 15 min
1.45
36%
Takedown defense
70%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.10evenly matched on net striking-1.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1516 vs 1519Strikes36.0 vs 33.0Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 1.0
Rony JasonSam Sicilia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Rony Jason(8 fights)Sam Sicilia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -22.0|Blue +22.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rony JasonTargetSam Sicilia

By target zone

33
43% acc · 72%
Head
28
36% acc · 72%
12
67% acc · 26%
Body
10
63% acc · 26%
1
100% acc · 2%
Leg
1
50% acc · 3%

By position

36
42% acc · 78%
Distance
31
37% acc · 79%
2
100% acc · 4%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 3%
8
100% acc · 17%
Ground
7
58% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Rony Jason rounds
1
even
0
Sam Sicilia rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:00
14Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:26Control
Round 2Rony Jason edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns1
Control0:09
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
46 / 96
Sig Strikes
39 / 96
47.5%
Sig Str %
39.5%
52 / 102
Total Strikes
48 / 108
1 / 1
TDs
1 / 1
100%
TD %
100%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:09
Ctrl Time
1:26

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Sam Sicilia14 / 3823 / 501 / 10
1Rony Jason18 / 4022 / 440 / 01
2Sam Sicilia25 / 5825 / 580 / 00
2Rony Jason28 / 5630 / 581 / 10

Rony Jason

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8

Sam Sicilia

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights12