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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Robert Peralta won · S-DEC R3
Elo1360
Rony Jason
Elo1354

Rony JasonvsRobert PeraltaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · Saturday, May 31, 2014Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Robert Peralta won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Robert Peralta wins(52.7%)

Actual result: Robert Peralta wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Robert Peralta at +290 American odds

+$290 profit

$390 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Robert Peralta has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rony Jason
Red Corner
VS
Robert Peralta
Blue Corner
-320
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+290
(26%)
1360
Elo
1354
42
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'8"
185.42 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rony JasonL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Mike Wilkinson · Jun 13
L
KOvs Jeremy Stephens · Nov 13
W
KOvs Steven Siler · Mar 14
L
vs Dennis Bermudez · Aug 16
L
vs Jeremy Kennedy · Mar 17
latest
Robert PeraltaL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Jason Young · Sep 12
L
vs Akira Corassani · Apr 13
W
KOvs Estevan Payan · Dec 13
L
SUBvs Thiago Tavares · Aug 14
L
vs Clay Guida · Apr 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rony JasonMetricRobert Peralta
2.04
Strikes / min
3.76
3.14
Strikes absorbed / min
2.97
53%
Strike defense
53%
0.59
TDs / 15 min
0.59
36%
Takedown defense
65%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.10Δ 1.89 — meaningful gap+0.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1546 vs 1528Strikes18.6 vs 45.4Takedowns0.2 vs 0.6Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.00Form0.5 vs 0.5
Rony JasonRobert Peralta

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Rony Jason(8 fights)Robert Peralta(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +5.1|Blue -5.1
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -85.0|Blue +85.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rony JasonTargetRobert Peralta

By target zone

16
33% acc · 53%
Head
20
24% acc · 39%
9
56% acc · 30%
Body
10
50% acc · 20%
5
63% acc · 17%
Leg
21
95% acc · 41%

By position

26
39% acc · 87%
Distance
44
38% acc · 86%
4
67% acc · 13%
Clinch
6
75% acc · 12%
0
Ground
1
100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Rony Jason rounds
0
even
3
Robert Peralta rounds
Round 1Robert Peralta edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:00
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:50Control
Round 2Robert Peralta edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns1
Control0:44
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:20Control
Round 3Robert Peralta edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control0:59
16Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:23Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
30 / 73
Sig Strikes
51 / 126
41.3%
Sig Str %
40.7%
40 / 83
Total Strikes
81 / 156
2 / 6
TDs
1 / 1
44.3%
TD %
100%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
1
1:43
Ctrl Time
2:33

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Robert Peralta17 / 4122 / 460 / 00
1Rony Jason9 / 2212 / 250 / 20
2Robert Peralta18 / 3836 / 560 / 00
2Rony Jason12 / 2313 / 241 / 11
3Robert Peralta16 / 4723 / 541 / 10
3Rony Jason9 / 2815 / 341 / 30

Rony Jason

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8

Robert Peralta

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights7