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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Rony Jason won · SUB R1
Elo1360
Rony Jason
Elo1490

Rony JasonvsMike WilkinsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · Saturday, June 8, 2013Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Rony Jason won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:24

Model Prediction: Mike Wilkinson wins(53.7%)

Actual result: Rony Jason wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Wilkinson at +300 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rony Jason enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Rony Jason has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Mike Wilkinson has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Mike Wilkinson (52.9%).
  • Rony Jason has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rony Jason
Red Corner
VS
Mike Wilkinson
Blue Corner
-330
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+300
(25%)
1360
Elo
1490
42
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'7"
185.42 cm
Reach
167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rony JasonL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Jeremy Stephens · Nov 13
W
KOvs Steven Siler · Mar 14
L
vs Robert Peralta · May 14
L
vs Dennis Bermudez · Aug 16
L
vs Jeremy Kennedy · Mar 17
latest
Mike Wilkinson
oldest →
W
vs Brendan Loughnane · Dec 12
W
KOvs Niklas Backstrom · Oct 14
L
vs Makwan Amirkhani · Feb 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rony JasonMetricMike Wilkinson
2.04
Strikes / min
2.35
3.14
Strikes absorbed / min
3.70
53%
Strike defense
35%
0.59
TDs / 15 min
0.92
36%
Takedown defense
55%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.10evenly matched on net striking-1.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1532 vs 1519Strikes41.0 vs 54.0Takedowns0.5 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 1.0
Rony JasonMike Wilkinson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Rony Jason(8 fights)Mike Wilkinson(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -130.9|Blue +130.9
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +62.0|Blue -62.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rony JasonTargetMike Wilkinson

By target zone

7
88% acc · 100%
Head
3
100% acc · 75%
0
Body
1
100% acc · 25%
0
Leg
0

By position

2
67% acc · 29%
Distance
1
100% acc · 25%
0
Clinch
0
5
100% acc · 71%
Ground
3
100% acc · 75%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Rony Jason rounds
1
even
0
Mike Wilkinson rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:44Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
7 / 8
Sig Strikes
4 / 4
87%
Sig Str %
100%
12 / 13
Total Strikes
11 / 12
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:44

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Mike Wilkinson4 / 411 / 121 / 10
1Rony Jason7 / 812 / 130 / 01

Rony Jason

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8

Mike Wilkinson

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights4