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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Jeremy Stephens won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1360

Elo1473

Rony JasonvsJeremy StephensUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · Saturday, November 9, 2013Goiania, Goias, Brazil

Official fight result

Jeremy Stephens won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:40

Model Prediction: Rony Jason wins(55.0%)

Actual result: Jeremy Stephens wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rony Jason at -185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rony Jason enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Jeremy Stephens has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rony Jason

Red Corner

Jeremy Stephens

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1360

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rony JasonL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Mike Wilkinson · Jun 13

KOvs Steven Siler · Mar 14

vs Robert Peralta · May 14

vs Dennis Bermudez · Aug 16

vs Jeremy Kennedy · Mar 17

latest

Jeremy StephensL5 streak

oldest →

vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19

KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21

vs Mason Jones · May 25

SUBvs King Green · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rony JasonMetricJeremy Stephens

2.04

Strikes / min

3.13

3.14

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

53%

Strike defense

57%

0.59

TDs / 15 min

1.10

36%

Takedown defense

61%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.10evenly matched on net striking-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rony JasonJeremy Stephens

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rony Jason(8 fights)Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -113.0|Blue +113.0

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rony JasonTargetJeremy Stephens

By target zone

25% acc · 100%

Head

100% acc · 100%

0% acc

Body

Leg

By position

20% acc · 100%

Distance

100% acc · 67%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rony Jason rounds

even

Jeremy Stephens rounds

Round 1Jeremy Stephens edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 5

Sig Strikes

3 / 3

20%

Sig Str %

100%

1 / 5

Total Strikes

3 / 3

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jeremy Stephens	3 / 3	3 / 3	0 / 0	0
1	Rony Jason	1 / 5	1 / 5	0 / 0	0

Rony Jason

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Jeremy Stephens

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights27