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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Santos won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1353

Elo1432

Ronny MarkesvsThiago SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Henderson 2 · Sunday, March 23, 2014Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil

Official fight result

Thiago Santos won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:53

Style matchupRonny Markes: WrestlervsThiago Santos: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Ronny Markes wins(82.2%)

Actual result: Thiago Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ronny Markes at -840 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thiago Santos is a KO finisher (79% of wins). Ronny Markes has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Ronny Markes has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ronny Markes

Red Corner

Thiago Santos

Blue Corner

-840

(89%)

Vegas Odds

+660

(13%)

1353

Elo

1432

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ronny Markes

oldest →

vs Karlos Vemola · Aug 11

vs Aaron Simpson · Feb 12

vs Andrew Craig · Jan 13

KOvs Yoel Romero · Nov 13

latest

Thiago SantosL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21

vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ronny MarkesMetricThiago Santos

2.17

Strikes / min

3.72

2.43

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

45%

Strike defense

53%

3.13

TDs / 15 min

0.88

100%

Takedown defense

65%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.26Δ 1.41 — meaningful gap+1.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ronny MarkesThiago Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ronny Markes(5 fights)Thiago Santos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -79.3|Blue +79.3

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -95.0|Blue +95.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ronny MarkesTargetThiago Santos

By target zone

0% acc

Head

43% acc · 86%

Body

100% acc · 14%

Leg

0% acc

By position

0% acc

Distance

20% acc · 14%

Clinch

Ground

55% acc · 86%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ronny Markes rounds

even

Thiago Santos rounds

Round 1Thiago Santos edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0 / 1

Sig Strikes

7 / 16

Sig Str %

43%

0 / 1

Total Strikes

8 / 17

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Thiago Santos	7 / 16	8 / 17	0 / 0	0
1	Ronny Markes	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0

Ronny Markes

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights5

Thiago Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24