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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ronny Markes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1352

Ronny MarkesvsKarlos VemolaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · Sunday, August 14, 2011Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Official fight result

Ronny Markes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRonny Markes: WrestlervsKarlos Vemola: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Karlos Vemola wins(61.5%)

Actual result: Ronny Markes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Karlos Vemola at -220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karlos Vemola is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Ronny Markes has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Ronny Markes has 69pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ronny Markes

Red Corner

Karlos Vemola

Blue Corner

+200

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1353

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ronny MarkesL2 streak

oldest →

vs Aaron Simpson · Feb 12

vs Andrew Craig · Jan 13

KOvs Yoel Romero · Nov 13

KOvs Thiago Santos · Mar 14

latest

Karlos VemolaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jon Madsen · Jul 10

KOvs Seth Petruzelli · Nov 10

SUBvs Mike Massenzio · May 12

SUBvs Francis Carmont · Jul 12

SUBvs Caio Magalhaes · Jun 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ronny MarkesMetricKarlos Vemola

2.17

Strikes / min

1.67

2.43

Strikes absorbed / min

2.13

45%

Strike defense

37%

3.13

TDs / 15 min

1.93

100%

Takedown defense

31%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.26evenly matched on net striking-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ronny MarkesKarlos Vemola

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ronny Markes(5 fights)Karlos Vemola(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +49.4|Blue -49.4

Grappler Score

Red +49.9|Blue -49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ronny MarkesTargetKarlos Vemola

By target zone

45% acc · 25%

Head

27% acc · 75%

100% acc · 43%

Body

100% acc · 25%

100% acc · 33%

Leg

By position

47% acc · 23%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

100% acc · 57%

Clinch

80% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ronny Markes rounds

even

Karlos Vemola rounds

Round 1Ronny Markes edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control4:03

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Ronny Markes edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns3

Control4:08

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 3Ronny Markes edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control4:45

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 52

Sig Strikes

8 / 24

76%

Sig Str %

34.3%

142 / 183

Total Strikes

44 / 67

6 / 6

TDs

0 / 4

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

12:56

Ctrl Time

0:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Karlos Vemola	4 / 14	16 / 26	0 / 1	1
1	Ronny Markes	11 / 16	28 / 36	2 / 2	0
2	Karlos Vemola	3 / 7	9 / 14	0 / 2	0
2	Ronny Markes	14 / 17	49 / 61	3 / 3	0
3	Karlos Vemola	1 / 3	19 / 27	0 / 1	0
3	Ronny Markes	15 / 19	65 / 86	1 / 1	0

Ronny Markes

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights5

Karlos Vemola

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6