← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Ronny Markes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1355

Ronny MarkesvsAndrew CraigUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping · Saturday, January 19, 2013Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Ronny Markes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Ronny Markes wins(77.8%)

Actual result: Ronny Markes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ronny Markes at -315 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrew Craig enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Ronny Markes has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ronny Markes

Red Corner

Andrew Craig

Blue Corner

-315

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+285

(26%)

1353

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ronny MarkesL2 streak

oldest →

vs Karlos Vemola · Aug 11

vs Aaron Simpson · Feb 12

KOvs Yoel Romero · Nov 13

KOvs Thiago Santos · Mar 14

latest

Andrew CraigL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Natal · Jul 12

vs Chris Leben · Jul 13

SUBvs Luke Barnatt · Oct 13

vs Cezar Ferreira · Jun 14

KOvs Lyman Good · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ronny MarkesMetricAndrew Craig

2.17

Strikes / min

2.39

2.43

Strikes absorbed / min

3.01

45%

Strike defense

50%

3.13

TDs / 15 min

0.53

100%

Takedown defense

72%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.26evenly matched on net striking-0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ronny MarkesAndrew Craig

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ronny Markes(5 fights)Andrew Craig(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ronny MarkesTargetAndrew Craig

By target zone

43% acc · 60%

Head

57% acc · 60%

100% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 35%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

43% acc · 60%

Distance

38% acc · 25%

100% acc · 20%

Clinch

100% acc · 30%

100% acc · 20%

Ground

90% acc · 45%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ronny Markes rounds

even

Andrew Craig rounds

Round 1Ronny Markes edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control4:04

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Ronny Markes edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control3:18

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Andrew Craig edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control1:26

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:51Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 9

Sig Strikes

20 / 29

64.3%

Sig Str %

59.3%

28 / 32

Total Strikes

90 / 106

2 / 12

TDs

0 / 1

16.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

8:48

Ctrl Time

2:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Andrew Craig	3 / 5	15 / 19	0 / 0	0
1	Ronny Markes	1 / 3	21 / 23	1 / 4	1
2	Andrew Craig	2 / 8	22 / 28	0 / 0	0
2	Ronny Markes	3 / 5	4 / 6	1 / 4	1
3	Andrew Craig	15 / 16	53 / 59	0 / 1	0
3	Ronny Markes	1 / 1	3 / 3	0 / 4	0

Ronny Markes

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights5

Andrew Craig

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights7