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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Rongzhu won · U-DEC R3

Elo1510

Elo1516

RongzhuvsKody SteeleUFC Prediction Result

UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Saturday, February 8, 2025Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Rongzhu won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRongzhu: Pressure fightervsKody Steele: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Rongzhu wins(63.7%)

Actual result: Rongzhu wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rongzhu at +280 American odds

+$280 profit

$380 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kody Steele threatens submissions; Rongzhu has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Kody Steele has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rongzhu

Red Corner

Kody Steele

Blue Corner

+280

(26%)

Vegas Odds

-350

(78%)

1510

Elo

1516

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rongzhu

oldest →

SUBvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Feb 22

KOvs Chris Padilla · Sep 24

vs Austin Hubbard · Aug 25

latest

Kody Steele

oldest →

SUBvs Dom Mar Fan · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

RongzhuMetricKody Steele

6.02

Strikes / min

3.85

5.44

Strikes absorbed / min

6.20

52%

Strike defense

52%

1.35

TDs / 15 min

1.07

84%

Takedown defense

100%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.58Δ 2.93 — meaningful gap-2.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

RongzhuKody Steele

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rongzhu(6 fights)Kody Steele(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.0|Blue +6.0

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

RongzhuTargetKody Steele

By target zone

108

49% acc · 86%

Head

24% acc · 80%

50% acc · 3%

Body

91% acc · 17%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

50% acc · 3%

By position

125

52% acc · 100%

Distance

28% acc · 98%

Clinch

25% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rongzhu rounds

even

Kody Steele rounds

Round 1Rongzhu edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:08

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Rongzhu edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:10

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Rongzhu edged it

Sig. strikes60

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

125 / 241

Sig Strikes

59 / 209

50.7%

Sig Str %

27.3%

126 / 243

Total Strikes

59 / 209

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 4

—

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:18

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kody Steele	27 / 86	27 / 86	1 / 3
1	Rongzhu	33 / 75	34 / 76	0 / 0
2	Kody Steele	9 / 36	9 / 36	0 / 1
2	Rongzhu	32 / 64	32 / 65	0 / 0
3	Kody Steele	23 / 87	23 / 87	0 / 0
3	Rongzhu	60 / 102	60 / 102	0 / 0

Rongzhu

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Kody Steele

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights1