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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Ignacio Bahamondes won · SUB R3

Elo1510

Elo1502

RongzhuvsIgnacio BahamondesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Saturday, February 26, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ignacio Bahamondes won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:40

Style matchupRongzhu: Pressure fightervsIgnacio Bahamondes: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Ignacio Bahamondes wins(58.4%)

Actual result: Ignacio Bahamondes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ignacio Bahamondes at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ignacio Bahamondes is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Rongzhu has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Ignacio Bahamondes has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rongzhu

Red Corner

Ignacio Bahamondes

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

-210

(68%)

1510

Elo

1502

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'3"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

RongzhuW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chris Padilla · Sep 24

vs Kody Steele · Feb 25

vs Austin Hubbard · Aug 25

latest

Ignacio BahamondesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Christos Giagos · Apr 24

KOvs Manuel Torres · Sep 24

SUBvs Jalin Turner · Mar 25

vs Rafael Fiziev · Jun 25

vs Tofiq Musayev · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

RongzhuMetricIgnacio Bahamondes

6.02

Strikes / min

5.99

5.44

Strikes absorbed / min

4.07

52%

Strike defense

55%

1.35

TDs / 15 min

0.00

84%

Takedown defense

70%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.58Δ 1.34 — meaningful gap+1.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

RongzhuIgnacio Bahamondes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rongzhu(6 fights)Ignacio Bahamondes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.8|Blue -8.8

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +49.4|Blue -49.4

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

RongzhuTargetIgnacio Bahamondes

By target zone

30% acc · 71%

Head

57% acc · 68%

90% acc · 19%

Body

89% acc · 20%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 12%

By position

37% acc · 96%

Distance

117

66% acc · 93%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

46% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rongzhu rounds

even

Ignacio Bahamondes rounds

Round 1Ignacio Bahamondes edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:06

42Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:11Control

Round 2Ignacio Bahamondes edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

60Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Ignacio Bahamondes edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:14

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 129

Sig Strikes

126 / 194

38.7%

Sig Str %

67%

49 / 130

Total Strikes

133 / 204

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

16.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:20

Ctrl Time

1:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ignacio Bahamondes	42 / 66	48 / 75	0 / 0	1
1	Rongzhu	9 / 17	9 / 17	0 / 1	0
2	Ignacio Bahamondes	60 / 97	61 / 98	0 / 0	0
2	Rongzhu	31 / 83	31 / 83	0 / 0	0
3	Ignacio Bahamondes	24 / 31	24 / 31	0 / 0	1
3	Rongzhu	8 / 29	9 / 30	1 / 3	0

Rongzhu

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Ignacio Bahamondes

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10