← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Chris Padilla won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1510

Elo1548

RongzhuvsChris PadillaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Saturday, September 7, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chris Padilla won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:14

Style matchupRongzhu: Pressure fightervsChris Padilla: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Chris Padilla wins(72.4%)

Actual result: Chris Padilla wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Padilla at +210 American odds

+$210 profit

$310 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Padilla is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Rongzhu has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Rongzhu

Red Corner

Chris Padilla

Blue Corner

-258

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1510

Elo

1548

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

RongzhuW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Feb 22

vs Kody Steele · Feb 25

vs Austin Hubbard · Aug 25

latest

Chris Padilla

oldest →

SUBvs James Llontop · Apr 24

vs Jai Herbert · Mar 25

KOvs Ismael Bonfim · Nov 25

DECvs MarQuel Mederos · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

RongzhuMetricChris Padilla

6.02

Strikes / min

6.19

5.44

Strikes absorbed / min

4.88

52%

Strike defense

49%

1.35

TDs / 15 min

1.13

84%

Takedown defense

80%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.58evenly matched on net striking+1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

RongzhuChris Padilla

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rongzhu(6 fights)Chris Padilla(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -37.9|Blue +37.9

Recent Form

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +791.0|Blue -791.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

RongzhuTargetChris Padilla

By target zone

43% acc · 53%

Head

71% acc · 53%

92% acc · 24%

Body

67% acc · 12%

79% acc · 22%

Leg

57% acc · 35%

By position

53% acc · 88%

Distance

63% acc · 91%

86% acc · 12%

Clinch

86% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rongzhu rounds

even

Chris Padilla rounds

Round 1Chris Padilla edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Chris Padilla edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:12

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 88

Sig Strikes

68 / 105

57%

Sig Str %

64.5%

49 / 88

Total Strikes

73 / 110

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chris Padilla	35 / 53	35 / 53	0 / 0
1	Rongzhu	27 / 54	27 / 54	0 / 0
2	Chris Padilla	33 / 52	38 / 57	0 / 1
2	Rongzhu	22 / 34	22 / 34	0 / 0

Rongzhu

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Chris Padilla

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4