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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Rongzhu won · U-DEC R3

Elo1510

Elo1478

RongzhuvsAustin HubbardUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Saturday, August 23, 2025Shanghai, Hebei, China

Official fight result

Rongzhu won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRongzhu: Pressure fightervsAustin Hubbard: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Rongzhu wins(80.8%)

Actual result: Rongzhu wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rongzhu at -295 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rongzhu has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rongzhu

Red Corner

Austin Hubbard

Blue Corner

-295

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1510

Elo

1478

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rongzhu

oldest →

SUBvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Feb 22

KOvs Chris Padilla · Sep 24

vs Kody Steele · Feb 25

latest

Austin HubbardL2 streak

oldest →

vs Vinc Pichel · Aug 21

SUBvs Kurt Holobaugh · Aug 23

vs Michal Figlak · Apr 24

vs Alexander Hernandez · Oct 24

vs MarQuel Mederos · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

RongzhuMetricAustin Hubbard

6.02

Strikes / min

3.97

5.44

Strikes absorbed / min

4.10

52%

Strike defense

55%

1.35

TDs / 15 min

1.63

84%

Takedown defense

68%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.58evenly matched on net striking-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

RongzhuAustin Hubbard

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rongzhu(6 fights)Austin Hubbard(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +32.8|Blue -32.8

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

RongzhuTargetAustin Hubbard

By target zone

42% acc · 64%

Head

25% acc · 57%

75% acc · 21%

Body

56% acc · 40%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

67% acc · 3%

By position

52% acc · 97%

Distance

33% acc · 95%

38% acc · 3%

Clinch

40% acc · 5%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rongzhu rounds

even

Austin Hubbard rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:29Control

Round 2Austin Hubbard edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:33Control

Round 3Rongzhu edged it

Sig. strikes52

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

101 / 197

Sig Strikes

75 / 226

49%

Sig Str %

33.3%

104 / 201

Total Strikes

77 / 228

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 12

—

TD %

22%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Austin Hubbard	18 / 59	18 / 59	1 / 3
1	Rongzhu	20 / 46	21 / 47	0 / 0
2	Austin Hubbard	28 / 68	29 / 69	1 / 3
2	Rongzhu	29 / 62	31 / 64	0 / 0
3	Austin Hubbard	29 / 99	30 / 100	0 / 6
3	Rongzhu	52 / 89	52 / 90	0 / 0

Rongzhu

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Austin Hubbard

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12