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Women's Bantamweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Ronda Rousey won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1359
Ronda Rousey
Elo1495

Ronda RouseyvsSara McMannUFC Prediction Result

UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · Saturday, February 22, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ronda Rousey won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:06

Style matchupRonda Rousey: WrestlervsSara McMann: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Ronda Rousey wins(65.1%)

Actual result: Ronda Rousey wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ronda Rousey at -360 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Ronda Rousey threatens submissions; Sara McMann has lost 67% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Ronda Rousey
Red Corner
VS
Sara McMann
Blue Corner
-360
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+325
(24%)
1359
Elo
1495
39
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'6"
167.64 cm
Reach
167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ronda RouseyL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Alexis Davis · Jul 14
W
SUBvs Cat Zingano · Feb 15
W
KOvs Bethe Correia · Aug 15
L
KOvs Holly Holm · Nov 15
L
KOvs Amanda Nunes · Dec 16
latest
Sara McMann
oldest →
L
SUBvs Ketlen Vieira · Sep 17
L
SUBvs Marion Reneau · Feb 18
W
vs Lina Lansberg · Jan 20
L
SUBvs Julianna Pena · Jan 21
W
vs Karol Rosa · Mar 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ronda RouseyMetricSara McMann
4.17
Strikes / min
2.26
4.14
Strikes absorbed / min
1.92
44%
Strike defense
47%
6.26
TDs / 15 min
4.38
50%
Takedown defense
50%
4.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.03evenly matched on net striking+0.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1531 vs 1516Strikes23.5 vs 8.0Takedowns3.5 vs 2.0Sub Atts2.00 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 1.0
Ronda RouseySara McMann

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Ronda Rousey(8 fights)Sara McMann(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -136.3|Blue +136.3
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red -245.0|Blue +245.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ronda RouseyTargetSara McMann

By target zone

4
33% acc · 29%
Head
8
57% acc · 62%
9
90% acc · 64%
Body
5
83% acc · 38%
1
100% acc · 7%
Leg
0

By position

2
25% acc · 14%
Distance
6
60% acc · 46%
12
80% acc · 86%
Clinch
7
70% acc · 54%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Ronda Rousey rounds
0
even
0
Sara McMann rounds
Round 1Ronda Rousey edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:43
Knockdowns1
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
14 / 23
Sig Strikes
13 / 20
60%
Sig Str %
65%
21 / 30
Total Strikes
14 / 21
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:43
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Sara McMann13 / 2014 / 210 / 00
1Ronda Rousey14 / 2321 / 300 / 00

Ronda Rousey

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights8

Sara McMann

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights13