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Women's Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Ronda Rousey won · SUB R1

Elo1359

Elo1492

Ronda RouseyvsLiz CarmoucheUFC Prediction Result

UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · Saturday, February 23, 2013Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Ronda Rousey won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:49

Style matchupRonda Rousey: WrestlervsLiz Carmouche: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Ronda Rousey wins(50.3%)

Actual result: Ronda Rousey wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ronda Rousey at -900 American odds

+$11 profit

$111 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Liz Carmouche has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Liz Carmouche has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ronda Rousey

Red Corner

Liz Carmouche

Blue Corner

-900

(90%)

Vegas Odds

+700

(13%)

1359

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ronda RouseyL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alexis Davis · Jul 14

SUBvs Cat Zingano · Feb 15

KOvs Bethe Correia · Aug 15

KOvs Holly Holm · Nov 15

KOvs Amanda Nunes · Dec 16

latest

Liz Carmouche

oldest →

vs Katlyn Chookagian · Nov 16

vs Alexis Davis · Dec 17

vs Jennifer Maia · Jul 18

vs Lucie Pudilova · Feb 19

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Aug 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ronda RouseyMetricLiz Carmouche

4.17

Strikes / min

2.78

4.14

Strikes absorbed / min

2.51

44%

Strike defense

61%

6.26

TDs / 15 min

2.57

50%

Takedown defense

65%

4.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.03evenly matched on net striking+0.27

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ronda Rousey(8 fights)Liz Carmouche(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -132.9|Blue +132.9

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ronda RouseyTargetLiz Carmouche

By target zone

46% acc · 86%

Head

67% acc · 100%

100% acc · 14%

Body

Leg

By position

20% acc · 14%

Distance

60% acc · 75%

100% acc · 29%

Clinch

100% acc · 25%

57% acc · 57%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ronda Rousey rounds

even

Liz Carmouche rounds

Round 1Ronda Rousey edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control3:47

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:52Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 14

Sig Strikes

4 / 6

50%

Sig Str %

66%

41 / 50

Total Strikes

22 / 24

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:47

Ctrl Time

0:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Liz Carmouche	4 / 6	22 / 24	0 / 0	1
1	Ronda Rousey	7 / 14	41 / 50	1 / 1	1

Ronda Rousey

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights8

Liz Carmouche

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights10