← All fights/Event page

Flyweight

3 Rounds

Ronaldo Rodriguez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1504

Elo1479

Ronaldo RodriguezvsOde OsbourneUFC Prediction Result

UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · Saturday, September 14, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ronaldo Rodriguez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRonaldo Rodriguez: Well-roundedvsOde Osbourne: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Ronaldo Rodriguez wins(66.4%)

Actual result: Ronaldo Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ronaldo Rodriguez at -205 American odds

+$49 profit

$149 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Ode Osbourne (53.5%).
Ode Osbourne has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ronaldo Rodriguez

Red Corner

Ode Osbourne

Blue Corner

-205

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1504

Elo

1479

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'7"

165.1 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ronaldo Rodriguez

oldest →

SUBvs Denys Bondar · Feb 24

vs Kevin Borjas · Mar 25

latest

Ode OsbourneL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Aug 23

SUBvs Jafel Filho · Mar 24

KOvs Luis Gurule · Apr 25

vs Steve Erceg · Aug 25

vs Alibi Idiris · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ronaldo RodriguezMetricOde Osbourne

2.71

Strikes / min

2.94

3.80

Strikes absorbed / min

3.24

44%

Strike defense

49%

1.09

TDs / 15 min

0.94

64%

Takedown defense

66%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.09evenly matched on net striking-0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ronaldo RodriguezOde Osbourne

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ronaldo Rodriguez(3 fights)Ode Osbourne(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +24.2|Blue -24.2

Recent Form

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ronaldo RodriguezTargetOde Osbourne

By target zone

48% acc · 83%

Head

47% acc · 76%

50% acc · 3%

Body

100% acc · 11%

83% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

32% acc · 29%

Distance

48% acc · 59%

Clinch

66% acc · 71%

Ground

68% acc · 41%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ronaldo Rodriguez rounds

even

Ode Osbourne rounds

Round 1Ode Osbourne edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control4:14

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Ronaldo Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control4:10

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 3Ode Osbourne edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:50

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:37Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 69

Sig Strikes

37 / 68

51%

Sig Str %

55.3%

68 / 117

Total Strikes

55 / 93

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 3

50%

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

9:14

Ctrl Time

1:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ode Osbourne	18 / 32	30 / 45	0 / 0	1
1	Ronaldo Rodriguez	6 / 14	25 / 37	0 / 0	0
2	Ode Osbourne	6 / 10	6 / 10	0 / 0	1
2	Ronaldo Rodriguez	19 / 24	29 / 40	1 / 1	0
3	Ode Osbourne	13 / 26	19 / 38	1 / 3	0
3	Ronaldo Rodriguez	10 / 31	14 / 40	0 / 1	0

Ronaldo Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights3

Ode Osbourne

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11