Flyweight

3 Rounds

Kevin Borjas won · U-DEC R3

Elo1504

Elo1486

Ronaldo RodriguezvsKevin BorjasUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Saturday, March 29, 2025Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Kevin Borjas won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRonaldo Rodriguez: Well-roundedvsKevin Borjas: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Ronaldo Rodriguez wins(58.6%)

Actual result: Kevin Borjas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ronaldo Rodriguez at -176 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Ronaldo Rodriguez

Red Corner

Kevin Borjas

Blue Corner

-176

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+370

(21%)

1504

Elo

1486

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ronaldo RodriguezW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Denys Bondar · Feb 24

vs Ode Osbourne · Sep 24

latest

Kevin Borjas

oldest →

vs Joshua Van · Nov 23

KOvs Alessandro Costa · May 24

vs Sumudaerji · Aug 25

KOvs Imanol Rodriguez · Feb 26

DECvs Andre Lima · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ronaldo RodriguezMetricKevin Borjas

2.71

Strikes / min

3.96

3.80

Strikes absorbed / min

5.64

44%

Strike defense

49%

1.09

TDs / 15 min

0.00

64%

Takedown defense

70%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.09evenly matched on net striking-1.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ronaldo RodriguezKevin Borjas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ronaldo Rodriguez(3 fights)Kevin Borjas(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +17.2|Blue -17.2

Recent Form

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ronaldo RodriguezTargetKevin Borjas

By target zone

28% acc · 48%

Head

56% acc · 87%

69% acc · 17%

Body

86% acc · 7%

88% acc · 34%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

42% acc · 98%

Distance

58% acc · 94%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

75% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ronaldo Rodriguez rounds

even

Kevin Borjas rounds

Round 1Kevin Borjas edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:43

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Kevin Borjas edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:14

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Kevin Borjas edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

43Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 151

Sig Strikes

83 / 141

41.3%

Sig Str %

59.3%

64 / 151

Total Strikes

84 / 142

1 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

16.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:57

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kevin Borjas	17 / 31	18 / 32	0 / 0
1	Ronaldo Rodriguez	10 / 25	10 / 25	1 / 3
2	Kevin Borjas	23 / 33	23 / 33	0 / 0
2	Ronaldo Rodriguez	17 / 42	17 / 42	0 / 2
3	Kevin Borjas	43 / 77	43 / 77	0 / 0
3	Ronaldo Rodriguez	37 / 84	37 / 84	0 / 0

Ronaldo Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights3

Kevin Borjas

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights7