← All fights/Event page

Flyweight

3 Rounds

Ronaldo Rodriguez won · SUB R2

Elo1504

Elo1488

Ronaldo RodriguezvsDenys BondarUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Saturday, February 24, 2024Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Ronaldo Rodriguez won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:59

Style matchupRonaldo Rodriguez: Well-roundedvsDenys Bondar: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Ronaldo Rodriguez wins(54.1%)

Actual result: Ronaldo Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ronaldo Rodriguez threatens submissions; Denys Bondar has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Denys Bondar has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Denys Bondar has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ronaldo Rodriguez

Red Corner

Denys Bondar

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1504

Elo

1488

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

165.1 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ronaldo Rodriguez

oldest →

vs Ode Osbourne · Sep 24

vs Kevin Borjas · Mar 25

latest

Denys BondarL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Malcolm Gordon · Feb 22

vs Carlos Hernandez · Jun 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ronaldo RodriguezMetricDenys Bondar

2.71

Strikes / min

4.59

3.80

Strikes absorbed / min

5.16

44%

Strike defense

56%

1.09

TDs / 15 min

3.99

64%

Takedown defense

62%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.09evenly matched on net striking-0.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ronaldo RodriguezDenys Bondar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ronaldo Rodriguez(3 fights)Denys Bondar(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +15.4|Blue -15.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Grappler Score

Red +49.4|Blue -49.4

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ronaldo RodriguezTargetDenys Bondar

By target zone

35% acc · 61%

Head

56% acc · 54%

78% acc · 23%

Body

62% acc · 20%

100% acc · 16%

Leg

100% acc · 27%

By position

30% acc · 42%

Distance

63% acc · 78%

71% acc · 16%

Clinch

75% acc · 7%

68% acc · 42%

Ground

75% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ronaldo Rodriguez rounds

even

Denys Bondar rounds

Round 1Denys Bondar edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:21

31Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:41Control

Round 2Ronaldo Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control2:35

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:11Control

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 69

Sig Strikes

41 / 63

45%

Sig Str %

62.5%

50 / 93

Total Strikes

46 / 77

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 6

—

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

2:56

Ctrl Time

2:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Denys Bondar	31 / 46	32 / 50	2 / 4	0
1	Ronaldo Rodriguez	14 / 38	17 / 43	0 / 0	0
2	Denys Bondar	10 / 17	14 / 27	2 / 2	0
2	Ronaldo Rodriguez	17 / 31	33 / 50	0 / 0	1

Ronaldo Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights3

Denys Bondar

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights3