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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Ron Stallings won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1354

Ron StallingsvsJustin JonesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas · Saturday, April 4, 2015Fairfax, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Ron Stallings won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Justin Jones wins(67.7%)

Actual result: Ron Stallings wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Jones at -185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ron Stallings has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ron Stallings (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ron Stallings

Red Corner

Justin Jones

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1490

Elo

1354

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ron StallingsL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Uriah Hall · Jan 15

vs Joe Riggs · Sep 15

latest

Justin Jones

oldest →

vs Corey Anderson · Dec 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ron StallingsMetricJustin Jones

3.22

Strikes / min

1.70

3.26

Strikes absorbed / min

3.17

51%

Strike defense

45%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.00

71%

Takedown defense

46%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.04Δ 1.43 — meaningful gap-1.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ron StallingsJustin Jones

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ron Stallings(3 fights)Justin Jones(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +135.9|Blue -135.9

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -43.0|Blue +43.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ron StallingsTargetJustin Jones

By target zone

52% acc · 62%

Head

20% acc · 52%

81% acc · 34%

Body

100% acc · 13%

67% acc · 4%

Leg

80% acc · 35%

By position

58% acc · 64%

Distance

14% acc · 22%

64% acc · 36%

Clinch

47% acc · 61%

0% acc

Ground

80% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ron Stallings rounds

even

Justin Jones rounds

Round 1Justin Jones edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:08

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:41Control

Round 2Justin Jones edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:23

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:08Control

Round 3Ron Stallings edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:17

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:35Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 84

Sig Strikes

23 / 72

55%

Sig Str %

31.3%

87 / 127

Total Strikes

88 / 145

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 12

—

TD %

27.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:48

Ctrl Time

9:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Justin Jones	11 / 27	39 / 55	1 / 3
1	Ron Stallings	18 / 29	36 / 51	0 / 0
2	Justin Jones	6 / 20	37 / 54	1 / 2
2	Ron Stallings	6 / 18	16 / 29	0 / 0
3	Justin Jones	6 / 25	12 / 36	0 / 7
3	Ron Stallings	26 / 37	35 / 47	0 / 0

Ron Stallings

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights3

Justin Jones

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights2