Middleweight

3 Rounds

Karl Roberson won · SUB R3

Elo1520

Elo1429

Roman KopylovvsKarl RobersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · Saturday, November 9, 2019Moscow, Moscow, Russia

Official fight result

Karl Roberson won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:01

Model Prediction: Karl Roberson wins(70.3%)

Actual result: Karl Roberson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Karl Roberson at +125 American odds

+$125 profit

$225 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karl Roberson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Karl Roberson threatens submissions; Roman Kopylov has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Roman Kopylov has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Roman Kopylov

Red Corner

Karl Roberson

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1520

Elo

1429

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roman Kopylov

oldest →

vs Cesar Almeida · Jun 24

KOvs Chris Curtis · Jan 25

vs Paulo Costa · Jul 25

vs Gregory Rodrigues · Nov 25

DECvs Marco Tulio · May 26

latest

Karl RobersonL4 streak

oldest →

vs Wellington Turman · Jul 19

SUBvs Marvin Vettori · Jun 20

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Apr 21

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Mar 22

KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roman KopylovMetricKarl Roberson

4.54

Strikes / min

2.57

5.08

Strikes absorbed / min

2.42

53%

Strike defense

57%

1.12

TDs / 15 min

0.72

88%

Takedown defense

40%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Roman KopylovKarl Roberson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Roman Kopylov(10 fights)Karl Roberson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +91.4|Blue -91.4

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +49.1|Blue -49.1

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roman KopylovTargetKarl Roberson

By target zone

26% acc · 51%

Head

18% acc · 33%

75% acc · 41%

Body

30% acc · 7%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

87% acc · 60%

By position

39% acc · 100%

Distance

36% acc · 95%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Roman Kopylov rounds

even

Karl Roberson rounds

Round 1Roman Kopylov edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Karl Roberson edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Karl Roberson edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:02

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:49Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 95

Sig Strikes

43 / 117

38.3%

Sig Str %

36%

38 / 96

Total Strikes

43 / 117

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 3

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Karl Roberson	9 / 38	9 / 38	0 / 0	0
1	Roman Kopylov	12 / 28	12 / 28	0 / 0	0
2	Karl Roberson	18 / 41	18 / 41	0 / 0	0
2	Roman Kopylov	11 / 30	11 / 30	0 / 0	0
3	Karl Roberson	16 / 38	16 / 38	1 / 3	1
3	Roman Kopylov	14 / 37	15 / 38	0 / 1	0

Roman Kopylov

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12

Karl Roberson

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10