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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Gregory Rodrigues won · U-DEC R3

Elo1520

Elo1548

Gregory Rodrigues editorial illustration

Roman KopylovvsGregory RodriguesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · Saturday, November 15, 2025New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Gregory Rodrigues won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRoman Kopylov: Pressure fightervsGregory Rodrigues: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Gregory Rodrigues wins(75.2%)

Actual result: Gregory Rodrigues wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gregory Rodrigues at -196 American odds

+$51 profit

$151 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roman Kopylov is a KO finisher (71% of wins). Gregory Rodrigues has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Roman Kopylov (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Roman Kopylov

Red Corner

Gregory Rodrigues

Blue Corner

+164

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-196

(66%)

1520

Elo

1548

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roman Kopylov

oldest →

SUBvs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 24

vs Cesar Almeida · Jun 24

KOvs Chris Curtis · Jan 25

vs Paulo Costa · Jul 25

DECvs Marco Tulio · May 26

latest

Gregory RodriguesW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Brad Tavares · Feb 24

vs Christian Leroy Duncan · Jul 24

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 25

KOvs Jack Hermansson · Jun 25

KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roman KopylovMetricGregory Rodrigues

4.54

Strikes / min

5.53

5.08

Strikes absorbed / min

4.78

53%

Strike defense

50%

1.12

TDs / 15 min

1.90

88%

Takedown defense

75%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap+0.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Roman KopylovGregory Rodrigues

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Roman Kopylov(10 fights)Gregory Rodrigues(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -28.3|Blue +28.3

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roman KopylovTargetGregory Rodrigues

By target zone

44% acc · 67%

Head

44% acc · 66%

56% acc · 17%

Body

76% acc · 31%

89% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

50% acc · 98%

Distance

51% acc · 93%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

67% acc · 7%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Roman Kopylov rounds

even

Gregory Rodrigues rounds

Round 1Gregory Rodrigues edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control0:31

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Gregory Rodrigues edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control0:04

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 3Gregory Rodrigues edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

52 / 105

Sig Strikes

90 / 173

52%

Sig Str %

52.3%

54 / 109

Total Strikes

91 / 174

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 4

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:35

Ctrl Time

0:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gregory Rodrigues	20 / 35	20 / 35	0 / 2	0
1	Roman Kopylov	9 / 16	11 / 19	1 / 1	0
2	Gregory Rodrigues	37 / 70	38 / 71	0 / 1	1
2	Roman Kopylov	23 / 36	23 / 37	1 / 1	0
3	Gregory Rodrigues	33 / 68	33 / 68	0 / 1	0
3	Roman Kopylov	20 / 53	20 / 53	0 / 0	0

Roman Kopylov

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12

Gregory Rodrigues

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights13